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Oct 15, 2026, 4:14 PM ETBasic Materials

Alcoa Corporation — Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Summary

AAALCOA CORP
Source

Financial Performance

  • Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 was $3.7 billion, a 7% sequential decrease from $3.966 billion in the second quarter of 2026 and a 24% increase from $2.995 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
  • Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $483 million ($1.81 per share), compared to $407 million ($1.53 per share) in the second quarter of 2026 and $232 million ($0.88 per share) in the third quarter of 2025.
  • Adjusted net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $485 million ($1.82 per share), compared to $562 million ($2.12 per share) in the second quarter of 2026 and a loss of $6 million in the third quarter of 2025.
  • Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was $789 million, a sequential decrease of $112 million from $901 million in the second quarter of 2026 and an increase from $270 million in the third quarter of 2025.
  • Cash provided from operations was $643 million, and free cash flow was $472 million.
  • The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of $4.4 billion, including $2.6 billion of financing obtained for the AliGroup acquisition.
  • Total debt was $4.822 billion, resulting in a net debt of $414 million and adjusted net debt of $969 million as of September 30, 2026.
  • Working capital days were 50 days, a sequential increase of 4 days primarily due to higher inventory days, consistent with the third quarter of 2025.

Guidance and Future Outlook

  • Alcoa reaffirmed its 2026 Alumina segment production projection of 9.5 to 9.6 million metric tons and shipment projection of 11.5 to 11.6 million metric tons.
  • Alcoa reaffirmed its 2026 Aluminum segment production projection of 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons and shipment projection of 2.6 to 2.8 million metric tons.
  • For the fourth quarter of 2026, the company expects higher production and shipments in both segments, with Alumina segment Adjusted EBITDA expected to be consistent sequentially.
  • Aluminum segment Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter is expected to be unfavorably impacted by approximately $30 million sequentially due to higher raw material costs and planned maintenance, with Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment expected to be unfavorable by approximately $30 million sequentially.
  • Other income is expected to increase by approximately $20 million in the fourth quarter of 2026 due to higher interest earned on cash held for the AliGroup acquisition.
  • Interest expense is expected to approximate $185 million for the full year 2026, an increase from prior projections due to the issuance of new senior notes.
  • Operational tax expense for the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to approximate $65 million to $75 million.

Business Segments and Product Lines

  • Alumina production increased 11% sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons, driven by improved stability at the Pinjarra, Australia refinery.
  • Aluminum production increased 2% sequentially to 649,000 metric tons, driven by capacity restarts completed in the second quarter and the completion of the Alumar smelter restart in the third quarter.
  • Alumina segment third-party revenue increased 7% sequentially, supported by higher average realized alumina prices and shipments.
  • Aluminum segment third-party revenue decreased 9% sequentially, reflecting lower shipments and average realized prices.
  • The company completed the restart of the Alumar, Brazil smelter.
  • The company set year-to-date production records at five smelters and one refinery.

Market and Competitive Landscape

  • The press release does not provide specific details on market share, direct competitor names, or specific market trend data beyond general references to global demand growth and supply/demand balances in the forward-looking statements section.

Risks and Challenges

  • Risks include the potential failure to satisfy closing conditions, governmental prohibitions or delays, and the risk that the AliGroup transaction may not be completed in the expected timeframe or at all.
  • Risks include unexpected costs, charges, or expenses related to the transaction, uncertainty of expected financial performance following completion, and potential failure to realize anticipated synergies.
  • Market risks include volatility and declines in aluminum and alumina demand and pricing, significant changes in production costs linked to the London Metal Exchange, and disruption of market-driven balancing by non-market forces.
  • Operational risks include the ability to obtain or maintain permits, rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and unfavorable changes in the cost, quality, or availability of raw materials.
  • Risks include economic, political, and social conditions, trade policies, tariffs, legal proceedings, changes in tax laws, climate change legislation, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates.
  • Risks include cyber attacks, labor market conditions, union disputes, and the ability to continue returning capital to stockholders.

Management Commentary and Tone

  • William F. Oplinger, President and CEO, stated that the company advanced the AliGroup acquisition, delivered improved refinery performance, and increased production across its smelting portfolio during the third quarter.
  • Management expressed a focus on strengthening safety performance, sustaining operational stability, and building momentum toward closing the AliGroup acquisition in the first half of 2027.

Other Key Points

  • Alcoa advanced the AliGroup acquisition, with South32 shareholders approving the transaction on October 15, 2026; the transaction remains on track to close in the first half of 2027.
  • On September 23, 2026, Alcoa completed offerings of $1.5 billion of 6.625% senior notes due 2034 and $1.1 billion of 6.875% senior notes due 2036 to fund the cash consideration of approximately $3.1 billion for the AliGroup acquisition.
  • Alcoa entered into definitive sale agreements for portions of the Massena East, New York site, with potential proceeds of up to $315 million, including approximately $50 million to $65 million at closing and additional payments based on approved data center capacity expansions over the following seven years.
  • Notable special items in the third quarter included mark-to-market gains on energy contracts ($32 million) and Ma'aden shares ($28 million), demolition and remediation costs ($25 million), and external costs related to the AliGroup acquisition ($14 million).
  • The company terminated remaining outstanding commitments for bridge financing upon completion of the debt offerings.