CF Industries — First Half 2026 Earnings Summary

Financial Performance

• First half 2026 net earnings were $1.34 billion ($8.71 per diluted share), compared to $698 million ($4.20 per diluted share) in the first half of 2025.
• Second quarter 2026 net earnings were $727 million ($4.73 per diluted share), compared to $386 million ($2.37 per diluted share) in the second quarter of 2025.
• First half 2026 net sales were $4.21 billion, up from $3.55 billion in the first half of 2025.
• Second quarter 2026 net sales were $2.22 billion, up from $1.89 billion in the second quarter of 2025.
• First half 2026 EBITDA was $2.17 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $2.18 billion, compared to $1.37 billion and $1.41 billion, respectively, in the first half of 2025.
• Second quarter 2026 EBITDA was $1.17 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $1.19 billion, compared to $757 million and $761 million, respectively, in the second quarter of 2025.
• First half 2026 gross margin percentage was 44.9%, compared to 37.3% in the first half of 2025.
• Trailing twelve months net cash from operating activities was $2.98 billion; free cash flow was $1.82 billion.
• As of June 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $2.48 billion, including $341 million held by the Blue Point One joint venture.
• Long-term debt was $3.216 billion as of June 30, 2026, compared to $3.215 billion as of December 31, 2025.
• First half 2026 financial results included a $170 million gain from a litigation settlement.
• Average cost of natural gas in cost of sales was $4.01 per MMBtu in the first half of 2026, compared to $3.52 per MMBtu in the first half of 2025.

Guidance and Future Outlook

• Management expects gross ammonia production for the full year 2026 to be approximately 9.5 million tons.
• The Yazoo City Complex is expected to resume production of ammonia, ammonium nitrate solution, nitric acid, UAN, and urea liquor during the first half of 2027.
• The Yazoo City Complex carbon capture and sequestration project is expected to start up in 2028.
• Management expects nitrogen supply to remain constrained and demand to remain constructive through the end of 2026 and into 2027.
• Management expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to tighten over the long term as capacity additions under construction are not projected to keep pace with demand growth over the next four years.
• Management projects capital expenditures for full year 2026 will be approximately $1.3 billion, with approximately $950 million attributable to CF Industries excluding joint venture partner funding.
• Management expects steady Chinese urea exports from July through October 2026, projecting 4-6 million metric tons of Chinese urea exports in 2026.
• Lower nitrogen prices entering the second half of 2026 are expected to support strong demand into 2027.
• Management believes nitrogen demand in North America for the 2027 growing season will be firm.

Business Segments and Product Lines

• Ammonia: First half 2026 sales volumes were lower than 2025 due to lower global demand and supply availability from planned maintenance; average selling prices increased due to tight supply-demand balance.
• Granular Urea: First half 2026 sales volumes were higher than 2025 due to greater supply availability and product mix; average selling prices increased.
• UAN: First half 2026 sales volumes decreased compared to 2025 due to lower global demand and a production mix favoring granular urea; average selling prices increased.
• Ammonium Nitrate (AN): First half 2026 sales volumes were lower than 2025 due to the loss of production at the Yazoo City Complex; adjusted gross margin per ton decreased due to higher purchased ammonia costs and outage-related costs.
• Other: First half 2026 sales volumes increased due to higher DEF and nitric acid sales; average selling prices increased.
• Gross ammonia production for the first half of 2026 was approximately 4.9 million tons, operating at a 98% utilization rate of available ammonia capacity.
• The Courtright DEF FEED study agreement with thyssenkrupp Uhde is expected to result in a final investment decision in 2027, potentially adding over 400,000 tons per year of DEF capacity.

Market and Competitive Landscape

• Global nitrogen prices increased from mid-February 2026 into the second quarter due to a tight supply-demand balance tightened by the conflict with Iran.
• By the end of the second quarter, prices returned to pre-conflict levels due to seasonal demand declines and expectations for returning Middle East supply.
• The conflict with Iran has reduced Middle East traded nitrogen supply by approximately 4.0 to 4.5 million metric tons of urea and 1 million metric tons of ammonia.
• Production from nitrogen facilities in Russia remains at risk from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
• European natural gas prices have increased significantly due to supply uncertainty and storage levels below the five-year average, pressuring marginal European nitrogen production.
• Management expects supply from the Middle East to remain below pre-conflict levels due to continued hostilities and transit uncertainty.

Risks and Challenges

• Risks include the ability to complete Blue Point Complex projects on schedule and on budget.
• Risks include the potential for capital expenditure needs related to the joint venture to exceed current estimates.
• The cyclical nature of the business and global supply/demand impacts on selling prices and operating results.
• Geopolitical risks including tariffs, trade relations, and conflicts affecting supply and availability.
• Volatility of natural gas prices in North America and globally.
• Risks associated with cybersecurity, terrorism, and international operations.
• Risks related to environmental, health, and safety laws, including greenhouse gas emissions regulations.
• Risks associated with the development and implementation of low-carbon ammonia projects and carbon capture technologies.

Management Commentary and Tone

• Chris Bohn, President and CEO, stated the team operated safely and delivered excellent operational results despite rapidly changing customer dynamics.
• Management believes the Company is positioned extremely well in the near- and longer-term with its premium-grade North American asset base, disciplined strategic growth opportunities, and strong balance sheet.
• Management expects CF Industries to continue generating substantial free cash flow to invest in high-return initiatives and return capital to shareholders.

Other Key Points

• In July 2026, permits were received to commence construction at the Blue Point Complex in August.
• The Blue Point One joint venture with JERA and Mitsui is constructing an autothermal reforming ammonia production facility; CF Industries holds 40% ownership.
• The Company repurchased 2.0 million shares for $230 million during the second quarter of 2026.
• Since October 2025, the Company has repurchased 5.6 million shares for approximately $523 million; approximately $1.48 billion remains under the program expiring in December 2029.
• The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share in July 2026, a 20% increase over the prior quarterly dividend.
• On July 31, 2026, a semi-annual distribution payment of $246 million was paid to CHS Inc. for the period ended June 30, 2026.
• The Yazoo City Complex outage, resulting from an incident in November 2025, is expected to have a substantial portion of restoration costs covered by insurance.
• The Company recorded a $23 million asset impairment related to the Yazoo City incident in the first half of 2026.
• The Company received $25 million in insurance recoveries for property damage in the first half of 2026.