CF Industries Holdings, Inc. — Nine Months Ended September 30, 2026 Earnings Summary

Financial Performance

• Net earnings for the first nine months of 2026 were $1.78 billion ($11.60 per diluted share), compared to $1.05 billion ($6.39 per diluted share) in the same period of 2025.
• Net earnings for the third quarter of 2026 were $436 million ($2.87 per diluted share), compared to $353 million ($2.19 per diluted share) in the third quarter of 2025.
• Net sales for the first nine months of 2026 were $6.07 billion, up from $5.21 billion in the first nine months of 2025.
• Net sales for the third quarter of 2026 were $1.86 billion, up from $1.66 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
• EBITDA for the first nine months of 2026 was $3.00 billion, compared to $2.05 billion in 2025.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2026 was $3.01 billion, compared to $2.07 billion in 2025.
• EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was $822 million, compared to $671 million in 2025.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was $833 million, compared to $667 million in 2025.
• Gross margin percentage for the first nine months of 2026 was 43.0%, compared to 37.6% in 2025.
• Gross margin percentage for the third quarter of 2026 was 38.7%, compared to 38.1% in 2025.
• Trailing twelve-month net cash from operating activities was $3.08 billion.
• Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2026, was $2.03 billion.
• Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2026, were $2.82 billion, including $496 million held by the Blue Point One joint venture.
• Long-term debt as of September 30, 2026, was $3.217 billion.
• Customer advances (deferred revenue) as of September 30, 2026, were $469 million, compared to $77 million as of December 31, 2025.
• The first nine months of 2026 results included a $170 million gain from a litigation settlement.

Guidance and Future Outlook

• Management expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive for producers in low-cost, low-risk North America in the near- and longer-terms.
• Management projects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to tighten over the long term as capacity additions under construction are not expected to keep pace with demand growth over the next four years.
• Full-year 2026 gross ammonia production is expected to be approximately 9.5 million tons.
• Full-year 2026 capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $1.3 billion, with $950 million attributable to CF Industries excluding joint venture funding.
• The cost of the Blue Point One ammonia plant is projected at approximately $3.7 billion, with production expected to commence in 2029.
• The cost of Blue Point common facilities is expected to be approximately $550 million.
• The Yazoo City Complex is expected to resume operations during the first half of 2027.
• The Yazoo City Complex carbon capture and sequestration project is expected to start up in 2028.
• A front-end engineering and design (FEED) study for the Courtright DEF upgrade plant is underway, with a final investment decision expected in 2027.

Business Segments and Product Lines

• Ammonia: Sales volumes for the first nine months of 2026 were lower than 2025 due to lower global demand for phosphate fertilizer production and planned maintenance. Average selling prices increased due to tight supply and Iran-related disruptions.
• Granular Urea: Sales volumes for the first nine months of 2026 were higher than 2025 due to product mix favoring granular urea and greater supply availability. Average selling prices increased due to tight supply and Iran-related disruptions.
• UAN: Sales volumes for the first nine months of 2026 decreased compared to 2025 due to lower global demand, production mix shifts, and the Yazoo City outage. Average selling prices increased due to tight supply and Russia-Ukraine war disruptions.
• AN: Sales volumes for the first nine months of 2026 were lower than 2025 due to the Yazoo City outage. Average selling prices increased due to tight supply, Russia-Ukraine war disruptions, and a higher proportion of UK sales. Adjusted gross margin per ton decreased due to higher purchased ammonia costs and outage-related costs.
• Other: Sales volumes for the first nine months of 2026 increased compared to 2025 due to higher DEF and nitric acid sales.
• Gross ammonia production for the first nine months of 2026 was approximately 7.2 million tons.
• The Company operated at a 97% utilization rate of available ammonia capacity year-to-date.

Market and Competitive Landscape

• Global nitrogen purchasing slowed in late Q2 2026 but rebounded in Q3 in North America, India, South America, and Europe, driven by higher corn and wheat prices.
• Global nitrogen prices increased through Q3 2026 due to higher demand against constrained supply.
• Only about half of average urea exports from the Middle East have exited the Persian Gulf since the conflict with Iran began; supply is expected to remain below pre-conflict levels.
• Production from nitrogen facilities in Russia remains at risk due to the Russia-Ukraine war, with shipments constrained in the Black Sea.
• Approximately 37% of Europe's nameplate ammonia capacity was offline or operating at reduced rates in October 2026 due to high natural gas prices.
• Approximately 35% of ammonia capacity in Trinidad is being permanently shut down due to gas constraints.
• China is expected to export 2-4 million metric tons more urea in 2026 than in 2025 to fill gaps caused by geopolitical disruptions.
• Global nitrogen channel inventory is reported to be low throughout the system.
• India is expected to import over 10 million metric tons of urea in 2026.

Risks and Challenges

• Ongoing outage at the Yazoo City Complex due to an incident in November 2025 has impacted production and increased maintenance costs.
• Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia continue to constrain global nitrogen supply and increase shipping costs.
• High natural gas prices in Europe and gas availability issues in Trinidad challenge production economics.
• Capital expenditure needs for the Blue Point One joint venture may exceed current estimates.
• Completion of Blue Point Complex projects is subject to schedule and budget risks.
• Volatility in natural gas prices and global commodity markets impacts selling prices and operating results.
• Potential impacts from tariffs, retaliatory measures, and global trade relations.
• Risks associated with cybersecurity, terrorism, and environmental regulations.
• Reliance on a limited number of key facilities and third-party transportation providers.

Management Commentary and Tone

• CEO Chris Bohn stated the team executed exceptionally well in Q3 2026, delivering strong safety performance and operating at high rates to meet deferred customer demand.
• Management highlighted the company's low-cost and low-risk North American asset base and industry-leading free cash flow conversion as positioning the company to create compounding value.
• The tone emphasized confidence in the constructive global nitrogen supply-demand fundamentals extending into 2027.

Other Key Points

• The Company repurchased 3.0 million shares for $367 million during the third quarter of 2026.
• Total share repurchases for the first nine months of 2026 were 5.2 million shares for $612 million.
• Since the current $2 billion program commenced in October 2025, the Company has repurchased 8.6 million shares for approximately $890 million, with $1.11 billion remaining as of September 30, 2026.
• The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per common share on October 7, 2026, payable November 30, 2026.
• Construction on the Blue Point One joint venture commenced in August 2026.
• CF Industries holds a 40% ownership interest in the Blue Point One joint venture, which is consolidated in its financial statements.
• CHS Inc. is entitled to semi-annual distributions from its minority equity investment in CF Industries Nitrogen, LLC, with an estimated $93 million distribution for Q3 2026.
• The Yazoo City Complex carbon capture project is proceeding as scheduled for a 2028 startup.