CF Industries — Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

Financial Performance

• Q3 2026 Net Sales were $1,860 million, up from $1,659 million in Q3 2025.
• Q3 2026 Net Earnings attributable to common stockholders were $436 million, compared to $353 million in Q3 2025.
• Q3 2026 Net Earnings per diluted share were $2.87, up from $2.19 in Q3 2025.
• Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was $833 million, an increase from $667 million in Q3 2025.
• Q3 2026 Gross Margin was $720 million (38.7% of net sales), compared to $632 million (38.1%) in Q3 2025.
• 9M 2026 Net Sales were $6,068 million, up from $5,212 million in 9M 2025.
• 9M 2026 Net Earnings attributable to common stockholders were $1,778 million, compared to $1,051 million in 9M 2025.
• 9M 2026 Net Earnings per diluted share were $11.60, up from $6.39 in 9M 2025.
• 9M 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was $3,008 million, up from $2,072 million in 9M 2025.
• 9M 2026 Gross Margin was $2,611 million (43.0% of net sales), compared to $1,959 million (37.6%) in 9M 2025.
• Q3 2026 LTM Adjusted EBITDA was $3.8 billion.
• Q3 2026 LTM Net Earnings were $2.2 billion.
• Q3 2026 LTM Cash from Operations was $3.1 billion.
• Q3 2026 LTM Free Cash Flow was $2.0 billion.
• Q3 2026 LTM Free Cash Flow to Adjusted EBITDA conversion was 53% (61% excluding $306 million in Canada/US tax deposits).
• Q3 2026 LTM Free Cash Flow Yield was 11.8%.
• Q3 2026 Capital Expenditures were $282 million; 9M 2026 Capital Expenditures were $776 million.
• Q3 2026 Natural gas costs in cost of sales were $2.87 per MMBtu, down from $2.96 in Q3 2025.
• 9M 2026 Natural gas costs in cost of sales were $3.76 per MMBtu, up from $3.35 in 9M 2025.
• 9M 2026 Adjusted EBITDA included a $170 million gain from a litigation settlement.
• 9M 2026 Adjusted EBITDA included $112 million in other adjustments and $107 million in business interruption insurance recoveries.

Guidance and Future Outlook

• CF 2026 Outlook includes expected gross ammonia production of ~9.5 million tons.
• CF 2026 Outlook includes expected CF-funded capital expenditures of ~$950 million.
• Mid-cycle EBITDA target is ~$2.9 billion.
• Long-term Outlook targets 2030 Mid-Cycle EBITDA of ~$3.3 billion.
• Global nitrogen supply-demand balance is expected to remain constructive with European curtailments accelerating and geopolitical disruptions constraining supply.
• Cycle duration is expected to expand due to long lead times for new nitrogen capacity.
• Blue Point Complex construction commenced; total project cost remains ~$3.7 billion.
• Ammonia production at Blue Point is expected to commence in 2029.
• Common facilities at Blue Point are expected to cost ~$550 million.
• Yazoo City Complex is expected to resume operations in 1H 2027.
• Available ammonia capacity utilization for 9M 2026 was 97%.
• 5-year rolling average capacity utilization for CF North America is 96%, compared to 86% for North America excluding CF.
• 2026 LTM Free Cash Flow to Adjusted EBITDA conversion is expected to average ~60% across commodity cycles.

Business Segments and Product Lines

• CF Industries operates as a materials company with a focus on nitrogen products including ammonia, urea, and UAN.
• Blue Point One joint venture involves the construction of a low-carbon ammonia production facility with carbon capture and sequestration technologies.
• Blue Point One JV capital contributions from JERA and Mitsui totaled $391 million in 9M 2026, with $196 million in Capex funded by partners.
• CF holds a 40% interest in Blue Point One capacity.
• CHS supply agreement includes nitrogen equivalent of 1.1 million tons of urea and 0.58 million tons of UAN.
• CF acquired a 50% interest in CF Fertilisers UK from Yara in 2015.
• CF acquired a 15% interest in Verdigris production in 2018.
• Ince plant closure in 2022 and Billingham NH3 plant closure in 2023 reduced production capacity.
• Waggaman ammonia production complex added capacity in 2023.
• Donaldsonville and Yazoo City Complexes incurred asset impairment charges.

Market and Competitive Landscape

• Global urea seaborne exports are expected to be down ~5 million metric tons year-over-year.
• Supply is disrupted from the Middle East and Russia.
• High energy costs are driving European nitrogen curtailments.
• Chinese urea exports are needed to meet import demand.
• 35% of Trinidad ammonia capacity is permanently shut down.
• Indian demand remains strong.
• Brazil imports are below average, with buying expected to accelerate.
• North American demand is supported by strong UAN fill and Fall ammonia programs.
• Global grains stock-to-use remains below historical average.
• CF has 10% greater capacity utilization than North American peers.
• Estimated European ammonia costs are projected to range from $536/MT to $1,189/MT through 2027, driven by high energy costs.
• A $50/ton movement in urea realized price implies an ~$800 million change in Adjusted EBITDA on an annual basis.

Risks and Challenges

• Risks include the ability to complete Blue Point Complex projects on schedule and on budget.
• Capital expenditure needs for the Blue Point joint venture may exceed current estimates.
• The business is cyclical, with global supply and demand impacting selling prices and operating results.
• Global commodity nature of nitrogen products and intense global competition.
• Potential impact of tariffs, retaliatory measures, and global trade relations.
• Volatility of natural gas prices in North America and globally.
• Weather conditions and adverse weather events.
• Seasonality of the fertilizer business.
• Risks associated with cybersecurity, terrorism, and international operations.
• Risks related to managing indebtedness and changes in tax laws.
• Risks involving derivatives and the effectiveness of risk management activities.
• Potential liabilities related to environmental, health, and safety laws.
• Regulatory provisions related to greenhouse gas emissions and sustainability matters.
• Risks associated with the development of the low-carbon ammonia market and technology performance.
• Reliance on a limited number of key facilities and third-party transportation providers.

Management Commentary and Tone

• Management highlighted "strong execution and constructive nitrogen fundamentals" driving robust financial results.
• Outstanding safety performance is cited as a driver for industry-leading production capacity utilization.
• Management noted a track record of converting EBITDA into free cash flow at an average of ~60%.
• Management emphasized a "proven formula for compounding shareholder value" with increased production capacity and decreased share count since 2010.
• Strategic initiatives aim to monetize decarbonization through 45Q tax credits and low-carbon price premiums.
• Management expects margin enhancement projects to contribute to mid-cycle EBITDA growth.

Other Key Points

• Q3 2026 LTM Capital Returned to Shareholders was $1.3 billion.
• Remaining share repurchase authorization is $1.1 billion, running through 2029.
• Share count has decreased 58% since 2010.
• Production capacity has increased 36% since 2010.
• A $306 million deposit was paid to Canada related to a US-Canada transfer pricing matter, applied against tax and interest due upon resolution.
• A $491 million payment related to a US-Canada transfer pricing dispute was made in 2022.
• Blue Point One joint venture was formed on April 8, 2025.
• CF Industries has a 40% interest in Blue Point One capacity, assuming completion on time and at nameplate capacity.
• Estimated cost to build a greenfield integrated NH3/Urea complex of 1.35 million tons is $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion.