Oct 14, 2026, 5:15 PM ETReal Estate
Orchid Island Capital — Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
Financial Performance
- Estimated GAAP net loss of $0.90 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.
- Estimated book value per share of $6.02 as of September 30, 2026, down from a decrease of $1.20 per share from June 30, 2026.
- Estimated total return on equity of (12.5)% for the quarter, comprised of $0.30 per share in dividends and a $1.20 per share decline in book value.
- Preliminary estimated total stockholders' equity of approximately $1.2 billion as of September 30, 2026.
- Estimated net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and derivative instruments of $1.17 per share for the quarter.
- Total dividends declared during the quarter were $0.30 per share.
- RMBS assets had a fair value of $10.765 billion (Total Mortgage Assets) with a face value of $11.270 billion.
- Total borrowings (repurchase agreements) stood at $10.362 billion with a weighted average repo rate of 3.99%.
Guidance and Future Outlook
- The company intends to make regular monthly cash distributions to common stockholders.
- To qualify as a REIT, the company must distribute annually an amount at least equal to 90% of its REIT taxable income.
- The company has not established a minimum distribution payment level and is not assured of its ability to make future distributions.
- Next dividend announcement expected on November 10, 2026.
Business Segments and Product Lines
- Portfolio consists of Agency RMBS categorized as (i) traditional pass-through Agency RMBS and (ii) structured Agency RMBS.
- Total Pass-Through RMBS comprised 99.89% of the portfolio with a fair value of $10.754 billion.
- Total Structured RMBS comprised 0.11% of the portfolio with a fair value of $11.4 million.
- Asset allocation by agency: Fannie Mae (52.1%) and Freddie Mac (47.9%).
- 96.0% of assets were classified as Whole Pool Assets under the Investment Company Act of 1940, while 4.0% were Non-Whole Pool Assets.
- Weighted average coupon on total mortgage assets was 5.51% with a weighted average coupon of 6.45% on the portfolio.
- Weighted average maturity of the portfolio was 332 months (27.7 years) with a weighted average age of 22 years.
Market and Competitive Landscape
- The company invests on a leveraged basis in Agency RMBS issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae.
- Portfolio risk measures include modeled interest rate sensitivity: a 50 basis point increase in rates would result in a loss of $21.0 million, while a 50 basis point decrease would result in a loss of $4.2 million (Rate Shock Grand Total).
- Hedge portfolio includes $10.248 billion in notional balance across SOFR futures, Treasury futures, swaps, and TBA shorts to manage interest rate risk.
- Borrowings are diversified across 30 counterparties, with the top five (Citigroup, Hidden Road, ABN AMRO, StoneX, Marex) representing 21.4% of total borrowings.
Risks and Challenges
- Net income per share calculated under GAAP differs from REIT taxable income, which is the basis for dividend declarations.
- Forward-looking statements regarding distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to factors discussed in the "Risk Factors" section of the 2025 Form 10-K.
- The company is subject to income tax on undistributed taxable income and excise taxes if distribution thresholds are not met.
- Preliminary financial figures are subject to change and review by the independent registered public accounting firm.
- Interest rate sensitivity modeling assumes instantaneous parallel shifts and constant SOFR option-adjusted spreads; actual results may differ materially.
Management Commentary and Tone
- The Board of Directors declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.10 per share for October 2026.
- Management views REIT taxable income as a better indication of income available for dividends than GAAP net income.
- Dividend declarations are based on estimates of REIT taxable income for the current quarter and calendar year, alongside longer-term income estimates.
- The company plans to continue regular monthly cash distributions.
Other Key Points
- October 2026 monthly dividend of $0.10 per share will be paid November 27, 2026 to holders of record on October 30, 2026.
- Shares outstanding decreased from 199.6 million (June 30, 2026) to 194.7 million (September 30, 2026) to 193.0 million (October 14, 2026).
- The company is managed by Bimini Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser.
- The RMBS portfolio includes significant exposure to 30-year fixed-rate securities, with the 30yr 5.5% tranche representing 35.22% of the portfolio and the 30yr 6.0% tranche representing 27.10%.
- The portfolio's weighted average coupon is 5.53% for pass-throughs and 3.41% for structured RMBS.
- The longest maturity for borrowings is September 3, 2027, with a weighted average maturity of 26 days.