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  1. Goldman Sachs1h 1m

    Phasing in the Reopening of the Economy

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Dr. Luciana Borio, Dr. Florian Krammer, Sharmeen Mosavaramani

    As of April 2020, global infections surpassed 3.2 million with 61,600 U.S. fatalities, prompting a complex transition toward economic reopening despite many states failing to meet sustained case reduction criteria. Therapeutic advancements, notably the NIH's findings on baricitinib, offer potential mortality reductions while experimental monoclonal antibodies and multiple vaccine platforms aim for deployment by mid-year to address the pathogen's persistence. Public health officials warn that premature relaxation of restrictions risks autumnal resurgence, necessitating robust testing expansion and contact tracing to manage recurring waves until herd immunity is achieved.

  2. Goldman Sachs57 min

    The State of the Real Estate Market

    Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alan Kava, Roy March, Ralph Rosenberg, Sharmeen Mosavaramani

    On April 24, 2020, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and Eastdale executives analyzed a global real estate market defined by record cap rate spreads, an 80% drop in private transaction volumes, and divergent sector performance driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. While hospitality and retail faced existential threats from plummeting occupancy and accelerating structural decline, industrial and life science sectors demonstrated resilience through e-commerce growth and near-perfect rent collections. Industry leaders anticipate a prolonged recovery period where well-capitalized banks may stabilize the market, yet a sharp bifurcation remains between distressed "have-to" sellers and liquidity-rich investors poised to acquire depressed assets.