Latest Interviews
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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs19 min
US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growth
Recent U.S. economic data reveals unexpectedly resilient job growth and stickier inflation stabilizing near 3%, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and AI-related price measurement distortions. Goldman Sachs forecasts core PCE inflation to settle around 2.1% with real GDP growth of 2%, prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through July while shifting its policy stance toward neutralizing inflation regardless of its source. Despite market speculation regarding rate hikes, the primary economic risk remains a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict that could trigger sustained price increases and destabilize financial markets.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Making Sense of Weak Job Growth Alongside Solid GDP Growth
Despite tariffs reaching eight times 2019 levels and a three-week government shutdown subtracting from growth, U.S. GDP resilience is maintained by a depreciating dollar, stable stock markets, and a productivity rebound to historical averages. Core inflation is projected to normalize toward the 2% target as supply chains recover, supporting the Federal Reserve's current expectation of three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts through the end of the year. While immigration drops have constrained labor supply and AI adoption remains limited to specific sectors, policymakers anticipate maintaining a moderate expansion path unless post-shutdown data reveals significant deviations from current forecasts.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
How tariffs will impact the US economy
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Miracle, joined by host Alison Nathan in a March 10 *Exchanges* episode, revised the full-year effective tariff forecast upward to approximately 10 percentage points, driven by implementations on Canada, Mexico, and proposed auto duties. Consequently, the firm lowered its 2025 GDP growth outlook to 1.7% and raised the recession probability to 20%, while maintaining a Federal Reserve rate-cutting trajectory that diverges from market expectations due to elevated inflation near 3%. Although Miracle dismisses the current environment as true stagflation, he warns that expanded trade policy uncertainty poses a more severe risk to business investment and hiring than in 2019.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
Why US recession fears are likely overblown
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Miracle attributes recent global market sell-offs to an overreaction against a July jobs report where unemployment rose primarily due to weather-related time off and temporary layoffs rather than a structural economic breakdown. While Miracle has increased the firm's 12-month recession probability to 25% to reflect softer labor data, he maintains that hard indicators like permanent jobless claims remain historically low, suggesting the economy is merely decelerating from an unsustainable 2023 peak. Consequently, Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts in September, November, and December to support growth, rejecting the likelihood of an emergency intervention given the central bank's substantial policy flexibility.