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  1. Goldman Sachs10 min

    A Vaccine-Led Recovery

    Dominic Wilson, Liz

    Goldman Sachs Research has revised its central growth case to a 2021 recovery trajectory following a surge in vaccine approval probabilities from 10% to 50% by late October. While near-term growth forecasts for the US and Europe face downward pressure from rising case counts, the firm projects a 2% GDP uplift by year-end 2021, driving market rotations into commodity and emerging market sectors. Investors are advised to navigate interim volatility caused by operational distribution risks and policy gaps, relying on the vaccine's timeline as a medium-term anchor for global economic acceleration starting in the second quarter of 2021.