Latest Interviews

Can Markets Withstand AI Risks, Fed Hikes, and Oil Shocks?

Tony Pasquariello, Josh Schiffrin, Dominic Wilson

Dominic and Josh analyze how supply shortages in AI infrastructure and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are creating a complex investment environment driven by oil market friction and Federal Reserve policy shifts. While the S&P 500 remains near record highs, the duo warns that diverging market performance from lived economic reality, combined with intensifying inflation pressures and a move away from central bank guidance, signals potential volatility ahead. Consequently, they highlight a strategic pivot toward the long end of the yield curve and credit markets, suggesting that concentrated asset exposure is prudent as liquidity is expected to thin in the coming months.

Copper: AI Hype or Supply Squeeze?

Adam Crook, Tony Kim

A commodities strategist analyzes the divergence between gold's resilient safe-haven performance during the Iran conflict and the skepticism regarding its near-term upside caused by shifting macro rates. The trader assesses silver's limited upside potential due to its tight correlation with gold, while maintaining a neutral stance on copper despite AI-driven demand narratives that conflict with current global surplus levels. Finally, the outlook for aluminum projects a temporary physical deficit and price appreciation through summer before a surplus is expected to emerge following the resumption of Middle Eastern production later in the decade.

Can the Tech Surge Continue?

Peter Callahan, Chris Hussey

Goldman Sachs reports a near-historic tech rally driven by an 80% year-to-year surge in semiconductors and robust earnings revisions that support current valuations. The firm projects 2027 capital expenditures to exceed $900 billion as infrastructure orders extend through 2027, while the software sector undergoes a selective re-rating based on demonstrated AI revenue growth. Despite concerns that the market has advanced too rapidly, analysts maintain a constructive medium-term outlook anchored by fundamental financial improvements rather than interest rate dynamics.

Iran Ceasefire: What’s next for markets?

Tony Pasquariello, Joshua Schiffrin, Dominic Wilson, Josh

Markets have transitioned into a post-ceasefire phase where equity drawdowns were capped near 10% and earnings growth remains robust, despite oil prices shifting to a permanent $78–$80 level that creates a new inflation baseline. Central banks now face a dual mandate dilemma that likely forces policy stasis, while hedge funds outperformed traditional portfolios by capitalizing on AI-driven CapEx and commodity-exposed emerging markets. Strategic allocations favor maintaining downside hedges and holding core assets like the Nasdaq and U.S. dollar as geopolitical realignments in the Gulf States and U.S.-China relations drive continued volatility through year-end.

Untangling Signals of Market Stress

John Flood, Chris Hussey

Markets are navigating extreme volatility driven by unresolved geopolitical conflicts, evidenced by a VIX spike to 30, oil approaching $100 per barrel, and S&P 500 futures depth collapsing to $3.8 million from historical averages. Institutional investors are executing heavy macro hedges and shorting broad products while rotating capital into U.S. equities as a safe haven, despite record trading volumes and degraded liquidity quality. The near-term market trajectory hinges on consecutive negative jobs data potentially destabilizing retail sentiment, though a return to geopolitical clarity is expected to trigger a rapid unwinding of macro shorts and a rotation back into Asian and European assets.

Repricing risks post tariff truce

Tony Pasquarello, Dominic Wilson, Josh Shiffrin

A panel of analysts forecasts a low but non-zero recession risk while projecting 1% growth amid a "higher inflation, lower growth" environment driven by effective tariff rates of 12% to 13%. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in 2025 if unemployment exceeds 4.5%, potentially ushering in a dovish regime that supports equities despite narrow paths constrained by bond market volatility and deficit concerns. While U.S. dollar depreciation may cushion equity performance, the discussion concludes with a cultural segment where Josh Shiffrin and Dominic Wilson critique the narrative outcomes of *Lost*, *The Shining*, and *The Departed*.

Is the market underpricing recession risks?

Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson

Following a pause on reciprocal tariffs that reduced immediate policy risk, analysts warn that recession fears remain significant and underpriced despite recent market rallies. While the U.S. dollar is entering a projected structural bear market over the next 6–12 months and oil faces downward pressure from disinflationary tariffs, equity volatility is expected to persist until clear trade outcomes emerge. Federal Reserve rate cuts will likely wait until deep financial stress or labor market cracks appear, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need to avoid unanchoring inflation expectations before acting aggressively.

Markets post-Fed: Inflation back in focus

Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Don Wilson

The Federal Reserve concluded its initial easing cycle with a 25 basis point rate cut while signaling a shift to a cautious, data-dependent Phase Two that prioritizes inflation progress toward the 2% target. Economists and strategists project 2 to 3 additional cuts in 2025 contingent on cooling price pressures, though markets face binary volatility driven by upcoming tariff announcements and leadership transitions. While underlying inflationary risks in housing moderate and the Fed Put provides downside support, equity performance will increasingly rely on corporate earnings rather than anticipated policy support in the post-election landscape.

10,000 Small Businesses UK Participants Share Experiences of Time on Programme

Launched in 2012, this intensive program guided struggling entrepreneurs through a rigorous diagnostic process that identified critical financial leaks and strategic pivots from B2B to B2C models. By pairing founders with growth experts and fostering a transparent cohort of vetted peers, participants transformed their ventures from loss-making entities into cash-positive businesses generating up to £1.5 million in revenue. The initiative delivered a transformative return on investment, enabling companies to hire strategically, secure major capital projects, and establish a lasting support network that continues to drive long-term operational efficiency.

A Conversation with Chief Information Officer Marty Chavez

Marty Chavez

Marty Leverett details a 25-year career trajectory at Goldman Sachs that evolved from a serendipitous biochemistry degree to leading computational trading strategies by leveraging the firm's unique data assets and avoiding the separation of technology from markets. He analyzes how exponential growth in compute power and cloud infrastructure has transformed machine learning from an impractical theory into a vital tool for solving complex financial problems. Beyond his corporate achievements, the discussion highlights his commitment to philanthropy, specifically his leadership in the foundation plan to cure HIV/AIDS and his involvement in the High Line urban development project.

Goldman Sachs Economists on EU Capital Markets Union: Talks at GS Session Highlights

Huw Pill, Jim Esposito, Philippe Ithurbide, William Wright

As European economies transition from crisis management to long-term structural growth, a strategic push is underway to establish a Capital Markets Union that diversifies funding beyond the banking sector. This initiative targets critical barriers such as fragmented exchange infrastructure, inconsistent insolvency laws, and information asymmetries that currently hinder SME access to public markets. Panelists recommend immediate regulatory harmonization and technology-driven standardization to unlock deep pools of long-term capital, ensuring that medium-sized enterprises and infrastructure projects can secure sustainable financing.