Latest Interviews

Can Markets Withstand AI Risks, Fed Hikes, and Oil Shocks?

Tony Pasquariello, Josh Schiffrin, Dominic Wilson

Dominic and Josh analyze how supply shortages in AI infrastructure and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are creating a complex investment environment driven by oil market friction and Federal Reserve policy shifts. While the S&P 500 remains near record highs, the duo warns that diverging market performance from lived economic reality, combined with intensifying inflation pressures and a move away from central bank guidance, signals potential volatility ahead. Consequently, they highlight a strategic pivot toward the long end of the yield curve and credit markets, suggesting that concentrated asset exposure is prudent as liquidity is expected to thin in the coming months.

Copper: AI Hype or Supply Squeeze?

Adam Crook, Tony Kim

A commodities strategist analyzes the divergence between gold's resilient safe-haven performance during the Iran conflict and the skepticism regarding its near-term upside caused by shifting macro rates. The trader assesses silver's limited upside potential due to its tight correlation with gold, while maintaining a neutral stance on copper despite AI-driven demand narratives that conflict with current global surplus levels. Finally, the outlook for aluminum projects a temporary physical deficit and price appreciation through summer before a surplus is expected to emerge following the resumption of Middle Eastern production later in the decade.

Can the Tech Surge Continue?

Peter Callahan, Chris Hussey

Goldman Sachs reports a near-historic tech rally driven by an 80% year-to-year surge in semiconductors and robust earnings revisions that support current valuations. The firm projects 2027 capital expenditures to exceed $900 billion as infrastructure orders extend through 2027, while the software sector undergoes a selective re-rating based on demonstrated AI revenue growth. Despite concerns that the market has advanced too rapidly, analysts maintain a constructive medium-term outlook anchored by fundamental financial improvements rather than interest rate dynamics.

Iran Ceasefire: What’s next for markets?

Tony Pasquariello, Joshua Schiffrin, Dominic Wilson, Josh

Markets have transitioned into a post-ceasefire phase where equity drawdowns were capped near 10% and earnings growth remains robust, despite oil prices shifting to a permanent $78–$80 level that creates a new inflation baseline. Central banks now face a dual mandate dilemma that likely forces policy stasis, while hedge funds outperformed traditional portfolios by capitalizing on AI-driven CapEx and commodity-exposed emerging markets. Strategic allocations favor maintaining downside hedges and holding core assets like the Nasdaq and U.S. dollar as geopolitical realignments in the Gulf States and U.S.-China relations drive continued volatility through year-end.

Untangling Signals of Market Stress

John Flood, Chris Hussey

Markets are navigating extreme volatility driven by unresolved geopolitical conflicts, evidenced by a VIX spike to 30, oil approaching $100 per barrel, and S&P 500 futures depth collapsing to $3.8 million from historical averages. Institutional investors are executing heavy macro hedges and shorting broad products while rotating capital into U.S. equities as a safe haven, despite record trading volumes and degraded liquidity quality. The near-term market trajectory hinges on consecutive negative jobs data potentially destabilizing retail sentiment, though a return to geopolitical clarity is expected to trigger a rapid unwinding of macro shorts and a rotation back into Asian and European assets.

Repricing risks post tariff truce

Tony Pasquarello, Dominic Wilson, Josh Shiffrin

A panel of analysts forecasts a low but non-zero recession risk while projecting 1% growth amid a "higher inflation, lower growth" environment driven by effective tariff rates of 12% to 13%. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in 2025 if unemployment exceeds 4.5%, potentially ushering in a dovish regime that supports equities despite narrow paths constrained by bond market volatility and deficit concerns. While U.S. dollar depreciation may cushion equity performance, the discussion concludes with a cultural segment where Josh Shiffrin and Dominic Wilson critique the narrative outcomes of *Lost*, *The Shining*, and *The Departed*.

Is the market underpricing recession risks?

Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson

Following a pause on reciprocal tariffs that reduced immediate policy risk, analysts warn that recession fears remain significant and underpriced despite recent market rallies. While the U.S. dollar is entering a projected structural bear market over the next 6–12 months and oil faces downward pressure from disinflationary tariffs, equity volatility is expected to persist until clear trade outcomes emerge. Federal Reserve rate cuts will likely wait until deep financial stress or labor market cracks appear, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need to avoid unanchoring inflation expectations before acting aggressively.

Markets post-Fed: Inflation back in focus

Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Don Wilson

The Federal Reserve concluded its initial easing cycle with a 25 basis point rate cut while signaling a shift to a cautious, data-dependent Phase Two that prioritizes inflation progress toward the 2% target. Economists and strategists project 2 to 3 additional cuts in 2025 contingent on cooling price pressures, though markets face binary volatility driven by upcoming tariff announcements and leadership transitions. While underlying inflationary risks in housing moderate and the Fed Put provides downside support, equity performance will increasingly rely on corporate earnings rather than anticipated policy support in the post-election landscape.

Paula Kerger, President & CEO of PBS

Paula Kerger, Ryan Nolan

PBS CEO Paula Kerger oversees the decentralized network's 16-year evolution from a command-and-control model to a trust-based system that balances federal infrastructure support with local fundraising. The organization differentiates its portfolio by prioritizing high-investment educational documentaries and investigative journalism like *Frontline* while transitioning to digital platforms to ensure equitable access in underserved communities. Looking ahead, Kerger aims to expand funding for national arts and science programming while reinforcing the network's role as a non-partisan counterweight to media consolidation and algorithmic polarization.

Edtech Faces the Test

Adam Nordin, Liz

Driven by pandemic-induced necessity, education technology has matured into critical infrastructure, prompting a rapid 40% to 100% demand surge that is fueling aggressive capital deployment and intensifying market consolidation among established and innovative players. While higher education and K-12 sectors face distinct fiscal pressures ranging from enrollment deferrals to state tax declines, accelerated procurement cycles have dismantled traditional bureaucratic friction to facilitate immediate adoption of AI-driven adaptive learning platforms. These structural shifts, characterized by faster decision-making and holistic solution integration, are redefining the sector's operational rhythm and creating a resilient, scale-oriented market despite ongoing economic headwinds.

The Power of Advocacy: US Mayors

Eric Johnson, Nan Whaley, LaToya Cantrell

Mayors Eric Johnson of Dallas, Andrew Whitaker of Dayton, and LaToya Cantrell of New Orleans collectively addressed the compounding crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and civil unrest while outlining strategies to support small businesses and protect vulnerable populations. These leaders detailed significant public-private financial partnerships, such as Dallas's $10 million recovery fund and New Orleans' $50 million commitment with Goldman Sachs, to mitigate job losses and address systemic inequities. Furthermore, the mayors emphasized an urgent need for federal assistance and collaborative governance to accelerate economic recovery and build more resilient, equitable urban environments.

Ben Cardin, Steve Daines, Maggie Hassan, US Senators

Ben Cardin, Steve Daines, Maggie Hassan

Senate leaders utilized bipartisan collaboration and direct stakeholder feedback to pass the Paycheck Protection Program unanimously, successfully adapting its terms to extend loan forgiveness to 24 weeks and adjust spending limits based on real-time economic data. Senators Hassan and Daines highlighted the necessity of combining personal advocacy stories with agile administrative adjustments, such as rapid policy "patches," to effectively support small businesses during the evolving COVID-19 crisis. The committee's focus on shared goals ensured the program addressed diverse friction points while maintaining flexibility for potential future funding rounds to meet ongoing recovery needs.

10,000 Small Businesses UK Female Founders on Running a Business

Harriet, Anna, Michal Silver, Rachel

Founders Harriet, Anna, Michal Silver, and Rachel Jackson discuss strategies for navigating entrepreneurial challenges, emphasizing the importance of emotional transparency with investors and reframing difficulties as opportunities for growth. The panelists outline specific tactics for maintaining work-life balance, such as strict digital boundaries and context separation, while offering tailored advice on funding, personnel strategy, and sustaining passion. Their dialogue highlights a shared belief that viewing challenges as solvable problems is a distinct trait among solo female founders who leverage investor relationships for both strategic guidance and emotional reassurance.

Perspectives from our UK Technology Degree Apprentices

Holly, Karina, Martin, Paul, Sephora

Five diverse apprentices spanning three years of the firm's program discuss how their roles evolved from foundational learning to delivering production-ready projects in fields ranging from trading market data to investment banking technology. Through a robust support system that includes mentors and diversity networks, participants navigate a flat organizational culture that values their insights while balancing rigorous technical exposure with mandatory work-life balance strategies. Ultimately, the cohort endorses the scheme as a transformative alternative to traditional university pathways, highlighting the unique advantage of graduating with an established internal network and hands-on experience in the full software development lifecycle.

10,000 Small Businesses UK Participants Share Experiences of Time on Programme

Launched in 2012, this intensive program guided struggling entrepreneurs through a rigorous diagnostic process that identified critical financial leaks and strategic pivots from B2B to B2C models. By pairing founders with growth experts and fostering a transparent cohort of vetted peers, participants transformed their ventures from loss-making entities into cash-positive businesses generating up to £1.5 million in revenue. The initiative delivered a transformative return on investment, enabling companies to hire strategically, secure major capital projects, and establish a lasting support network that continues to drive long-term operational efficiency.