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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs10 min
A Vaccine-Led Recovery
Goldman Sachs Research has revised its central growth case to a 2021 recovery trajectory following a surge in vaccine approval probabilities from 10% to 50% by late October. While near-term growth forecasts for the US and Europe face downward pressure from rising case counts, the firm projects a 2% GDP uplift by year-end 2021, driving market rotations into commodity and emerging market sectors. Investors are advised to navigate interim volatility caused by operational distribution risks and policy gaps, relying on the vaccine's timeline as a medium-term anchor for global economic acceleration starting in the second quarter of 2021.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
The Outlook for the Corporate Credit Default Cycle
Goldman Sachs identified three sequential credit risks in early March, noting that Federal Reserve intervention in late March successfully mitigated the most severe credit crunch and liquidity impairment while leaving fundamental financial distress intact. Although the central bank's announcement triggered an 85% surge in primary market issuance and normalized secondary trading conditions, the firm maintains a 13% default rate forecast for the year due to persistent earnings pressure on lower-rated issuers. Market participants anticipate a strategic shift toward restructurings rather than liquidations, with a projected sector rotation back into cyclical industries like energy as the economic recovery progresses.