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  1. Goldman Sachs33 min

    Asset allocation outlook: The case for greater portfolio diversification in 2024

    Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Alison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs Research and Asset Management teams project a 2024 landscape defined by a strategic rotation out of underweight cash holdings toward a rebalanced 60-40 equity-bond mix to capitalize on normalizing inflation and renewed diversification benefits. While the U.S. economy is identified as late-cycle with a 30% recession probability, the firms recommend extending fixed income duration, utilizing equity put options for downside protection, and increasing exposure to private markets and real assets to navigate persistent structural inflation and AI-driven productivity divergence. This comprehensive strategy aims to achieve a soft landing by hedging against rising credit delinquencies and supply pressures while actively capturing alpha in a higher-rate environment where zero-interest rates are not expected to return.

  2. Goldman Sachs24 min

    Asset Allocation Outlook for 2023: Greater Diversification and Divergence

    Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs analyzes 2022's market turbulence, where real yield spikes and inflation-driven volatility caused equities and crypto to decline while commodities and the US dollar surged, fundamentally breaking traditional asset correlations. Looking ahead to 2023, the firm forecasts a high probability of recession and persistent market volatility as investors shift from the "TINA" narrative to seeking reasonable fixed income alternatives and real assets. Strategically, the outlook suggests avoiding overvalued cyclical equities while capitalizing on valuation discounts in international markets and a potential rotation away from the US dollar as it peaks.