Latest Interviews
Showing 1–4 of 4 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs18 min
Trump’s tariffs: Big talk or big action?
Trump, Jeff Gerrish, Allison Nathan
The current administration is deploying aggressive tariff policies to reshape U.S. manufacturing, secure national security in strategic sectors, and address geopolitical concerns like fentanyl trafficking. While market volatility is intentionally leveraged to force negotiation concessions, a coordinated strategy involving hawkish figures aims to replace bilateral deals with a reciprocal global tariff system by the April 1st deadline. Despite legal challenges, these measures are designed to correct trade imbalances and extend beyond the scope of previous administrations to fundamentally alter international trade dynamics.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
What investors expect from Trump
A Goldman Sachs survey of over 500 investors reveals that the market anticipates a universal tariff as the primary 2025 macro risk while expecting the 2017 tax cuts to be extended alongside a stabilization of net immigration near 750,000 annually. Although investors assign a 35% probability to a universal tariff and project modest additional tax cuts, their outlook suggests that the inflationary pressure from policy shifts will remain contained, allowing the Federal Reserve to prioritize growth and pursue rate cuts. Goldman Sachs concludes that while temporary growth drag may occur in 2025 due to the earlier implementation of immigration and tariff measures, the long-term growth trajectory will remain largely unchanged as fiscal constraints limit further significant tax or spending expansions.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
What Trump’s policies could mean for the Fed
Trump, Rob Kaplan, Alison Nathan
In a November 11, 2024 discussion, former Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan and Goldman Sachs' Alison Nathan evaluate the Federal Reserve's successful "soft landing" execution while highlighting significant purchasing power erosion for the lower 65 million workers. Kaplan predicts distinct regulatory shifts under the new administration and warns that structural factors like labor contraction and potential deregulation will complicate future inflation and growth trajectories. Consequently, he advises markets to treat the anticipated December rate cut as a conditional "game-time decision" pending clearer data on labor dynamics and the administration's fiscal strategy.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
What Trump’s win means for markets and portfolios
Trump, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Brian Garrett, Alison Nathan
Following Donald Trump's presidential victory, U.S. stocks, bond yields, and the dollar surged sharply as clients rapidly shifted from underweight to long positions in banks, technology, and energy sectors. Goldman Sachs analysts project a potential S&P 500 rally to 6,100 by mirroring 2016 post-election patterns, while noting that European equities and renewable energy stocks face immediate pressure from tariff fears and policy changes. Although the VIX dropped to historic lows due to suppressed hedging, the firm maintains an equity-overweight strategy with a neutral duration outlook, warning that sustained yield spikes or reflation frustration could eventually trigger market indigestion.