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  1. The Economist6 min

    How high could the oil price go? | The Economist

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Edward Carr, Mathieu, Henry

    Global oil markets face a structural crisis where a 14 million barrel-per-day supply deficit has eroded the "sanguine" expectation of a quick peace deal, creating a price disconnect that literature estimates would require $167 to $460 per barrel to correct. With production gains from non-conflicted regions proving negligible, the market is currently absorbing this shortfall through record-fast inventory drawdowns of 8 to 10 million barrels daily, driven by pre-war shipments and sanctions-induced cargo displacement. As critical buffers for jet fuel and diesel approach minimum levels and logistical constraints lengthen trade routes, the only remaining adjustment mechanisms involve further depletion of commercial stocks or active demand destruction in major consuming regions like Asia.

  2. The Economist9 min

    What would be the point of an American strike on Iran? | The Economist

    Edward Carr, Ed, Shashank, Greg

    Two US aircraft carrier strike groups and over 100 fighter jets, including F-22s landed in Israel, have assembled in the Gulf and Mediterranean to execute high-intensity strikes without establishing a large-scale ground presence in Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Analysts warn that the undefined strategic aim—ranging from punitive punishment to coercive diplomacy or regime change—fundamentally determines the conflict's duration and feasibility. Negotiations remain deadlocked over specific nuclear constraints, as Washington seeks a permanent agreement eliminating sunset clauses while Iran resists total uranium enrichment restrictions.

  3. The Economist9 min

    What we know about the Ukraine peace plan

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Edward Carr, Olly, Ed, Shashank, Zannie, Chris

    Emerging from Geneva talks, a draft treaty to partition Ukraine has evolved from a 28-point plan to an 18-point document featuring relaxed military caps and the potential removal of constitutional bans on NATO membership. While special representative Steve Witkoff allegedly advised Russian negotiators on pressure tactics and leaked communications cast suspicion on the security of the process, key disputes remain regarding the status of Donbass, the enforceability of vague US security guarantees, and the exclusion of European military forces. Analysts warn that despite the removal of restrictive weapon bans, the proposed framework relies on unenforceable terms and creates a strategic vacuum for Ukraine's post-war defense.

  4. The Economist10 min

    Were we wrong about Trump's tariffs?

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Edward Carr, Henry, John, Ed

    Recent trade policies have established the highest tariff levels in ninety years, creating a significant gap between announced rates and effective collection due to supply chain shifts and business cost absorption. While the U.S. economy experienced its weakest half-year growth since 2012 with rising inflation, political dynamics are shifting toward protectionism across both parties despite bipartisan opposition from key figures like Mitch McConnell. Experts warn that arbitrary policy implementation and entrenched lobbying interests will likely create long-term structural damage and market isolation, even if an immediate recession is avoided.