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  1. The Economist52 min

    A key Keystone: the race for Pennsylvania

    John Prideaux, Charlotte Howard, Idrees Kahloon, John Priddo, Idris Kalloun

    Pennsylvania has emerged as the critical 2024 election tipping point, where a predicted 30% probability of determining the presidency drives over $138 million in campaign spending and a tightening polling race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Strategic efforts by both campaigns now target specific swing counties and demographic shifts, as Harris attempts to restore coalition numbers among younger and female voters while Trump leverages heavy advertising to appeal to rural and working-class constituents concerned with inflation and trade. This contest is further complicated by deep regional divides between Philadelphia's educated suburbs and the state's conservative interior, alongside structural election law challenges that heighten voter anxieties regarding results and integrity.

  2. The Economist49 min

    Election rejection: fears of a contested result

    John Prideaux, Charlotte Howard, Idrees Kahloon, Geoff Duncan, Jamie Raskin, John Priddo, Idris Khaloun

    Drawing parallels to the 1960 Nixon concession and the 2020 "Stop the Steal" playbook, the Republican Party is preparing legal and political strategies to challenge a potential 2024 loss for Donald Trump by exploiting decentralized election systems and filing lawsuits to manufacture doubt. While reforms like the Electoral Count Act and audit results in states like Georgia aim to secure certification, experts warn that the primary risk remains the creation of lasting public mistrust and governance paralysis rather than a successful legal overturn of the results. Concurrently, the political landscape faces internal fragmentation, exemplified by figures like Jeff Duncan urging the removal of Trump from the party, as both sides brace for an election defined by procedural ambiguities and competing narratives of integrity.