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Is the market underpricing recession risks?

Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson

Following a pause on reciprocal tariffs that reduced immediate policy risk, analysts warn that recession fears remain significant and underpriced despite recent market rallies. While the U.S. dollar is entering a projected structural bear market over the next 6–12 months and oil faces downward pressure from disinflationary tariffs, equity volatility is expected to persist until clear trade outcomes emerge. Federal Reserve rate cuts will likely wait until deep financial stress or labor market cracks appear, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need to avoid unanchoring inflation expectations before acting aggressively.