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Rental & Leasing Services — industry outlook

  • Period: 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-20
  • Events: 4
  • Generated: 2026-09-20T06:30:00.003Z

Earnings Recovery and Financial Targets

Ryder System (R) expects to capture $250 million in additional earnings from transactional businesses, primarily driven by used vehicle sales and rental demand, as the market recovers. This target includes $20 million realized in the current year from used vehicle proceeds, with the full run-rate expected by FY2027. Concurrently, Ryder targets a $170 million underlying cost savings program completion by the end of FY2026. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) projects normalized EBITDA margins for its Aerospace Products segment to stabilize at 30% over the next two to three years, a reduction from initial 40% levels intended to capture greater market share; this segment targets revenue growth from $3.5 billion to $4.7 billion and EBITDA growth to $1.4 billion over the coming year. FTAI targets $7 million to $8 million in EBITDA per unit for its Power Economics business once fully operational.

Rental Fleet Capacity and Investment Cycles

Ryder System (R) notes the rental fleet is currently 20% lower than pre-COVID levels, representing a gap of approximately 10,000 units. The company anticipates a supply-side recovery but expects no significant demand recovery beyond seasonal trends in the near term. To capture future demand, Ryder plans a 12–18 month investment cycle to replenish the fleet, targeting utilization in the mid-to-high 70s. In contrast, FTAI Aviation (FTAI) is actively expanding capacity by acquiring facilities in Cairo and Indonesia to add 3,000 modules of annual maintenance capacity, aiming to expand its "owner-operator" model from CFM56 and V2500 engines to additional types.

Dedicated Transportation and Market Share Dynamics

Ryder System (R) reports its dedicated solutions pipeline is at record highs, driven by driver shortages and rising equipment costs, with significant growth expected in FY2027 and forward. The company views the regulatory environment, specifically the Montgomery ruling and EPA 27 regulations, as tailwinds that shift customers from brokerage to dedicated solutions, negatively impacting brokerage models which comprise only 3% of Ryder's business. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) expects its market share of CFM56 and V2500 shop visits to rise from the current 10%+ level, anticipating OEM (GE/Safran) involvement in the legacy aftermarket to decline to "very low" levels over the long term. FTAI aims to eventually service 100% of customer shop visits internally.

Capital Allocation and Strategic M&A

Ryder System (R) outlines a $13 billion capital allocation plan over the next three years, designating $9.5 billion for lease replacements and dividends, and $4.5 billion for discretionary spend. The company targets 18% return on equity and maintains a leverage target of 2.5x to 3.0x. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) has authorized $500 million in share buybacks and is fundraising for a second Specialized Engine Investments (SEI) fund, aiming for a total asset management target of $20 billion in AUM. FTAI emphasizes balancing organic growth investments with capital deployment, utilizing external capital for its asset management business to maintain an asset-light structure.

Autonomous Vehicles and Structural Shifts

Ryder System (R) projects that widespread commercialization of autonomous trucking remains several years out due to unresolved liability and economic models, though it is preparing to provide maintenance, leasing, and infrastructure services (hubs) for AVs. The company notes the lack of a national AV framework. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) is leveraging a joint venture with Jera to scale power generation projects, targeting the production of gigawatts of power via engine conversion and extending CFM56 platform life by 20 years, driven by data center demand and shortages in new hot section parts for industrial turbines.