Institute Insights — 08-30-2026

Summary

• Bank of America account data shows a continued decline in movers in Q2 2026 across income groups & generations, with lower-income households & Millennials seeing the sharpest pullbacks.
• Longer-distance relocations fell more sharply overall, while same-city moves slowed even faster in Q2 2026.
• Home movers continue to favor smaller cities, particularly in the Midwest, while some homeowners choose renovation over relocation using HELOC-supported projects.
• The alternative hiring indicator for small businesses rose 21% year-over-year in July 2026 according to Bank of America small business payments data.
• Small business profits reached their highest level of 2026 in July, with transportation & manufacturing among the strongest-performing industries.
• Travel-related transaction volumes rose only modestly in July 2026, but total travel spending increased substantially, likely reflecting higher prices & bigger or longer trips.
• Restaurant spending & transaction growth strengthened in 2026, with some food spending shifting from grocery stores to restaurants.
• The recovery in restaurant spending is led by younger & lower-income consumers, with spending growth strongest at independent, regional & non-chain restaurants.
• New vehicle sales remain above the 2025 average despite a slight pullback in July 2026 & higher gas prices.
• Higher-income households account for a disproportionate share of new & used vehicle purchases, supporting demand despite affordability challenges.
• Almost 20% of lower- & middle-income households pay more than $1,000 per month in auto payments.
• Investors in AI-related projects are becoming more selective, focusing on project economics, monetization strategies & clear evidence of future returns.
• The long-term success of the AI buildout will depend on whether spending delivers productivity gains & lasting economic value rather than the total amount spent.