Olaf Sakkers is betting he can beat the emerging-manager squeeze

Summary

• Firms raising their fourth fund or later captured 88.2% of U.S. VC fundraising dollars through the first three quarters of 2026, while first-time funds captured 4.5%.
• Just 81 first-time funds closed in the first nine months of 2026, putting the year on track to be the worst for first-time managers in at least a decade.
• Olaf Sakkers founded RedBlue Capital in 2021 \& closed its first fund with roughly $5 million in capital commitments in 2023.
• Sakkers held a first close on a second fund that will total at least $50 million.
• Sakkers studied anthropology at Princeton, wrote a thesis on HIV in South Africa, moved to Israel, \& served in the Israel Defense Forces before working with Michael Granoff at Maniv Mobility.
• RedBlue Capital backs the "real economy," including robotics, logistics, manufacturing, \& energy.
• Institutional limited partners are difficult to win over because their risk models prioritize avoiding losses \& gravitate toward established brands.
• RedBlue writes small checks ranging from $50,000 to $100,000 \& mostly joins deals led by other investors.
• The firm promises practical help, including introductions to lead investors like Andreessen Horowitz \& Thrive Capital, \& to customers.
• Of 28 investments in the first fund, 15 have been marked up, with a net internal rate of return significantly above 50%.
• There has been one exit, an acqui-hire, so most gains from the tiny fund remain on paper \& unrealized.
• Public records show RedBlue-backed HappyRobot raised a $150 million Series C at a $1.2 billion valuation in August.
• RedBlue-backed Westmag emerged in June with an $11 million seed led by Andreessen Horowitz.
• RedBlue-backed Flai followed its 2025 seed with a $27 million Series A.
• RedBlue participated in Humble Robotics' $24 million seed round, which announced a $51 million Series A led by Obvious Ventures earlier this month.
• RedBlue publishes thesis essays \& uses a custom database built with Claude Code to log relationships, meeting notes, \& introductions.
• Smaller venture capital funds between $1 million \& $10 million consistently outperform larger funds of $100 million or more at the top end of net TVPI across recent vintages tracked by Carta.