Ramp data shows AI spending stalling just as Anthropic nears its IPO

Summary

• AI spending flatlined over late summer despite rising token volumes, with spend growing only 1.5% in August and September compared to a 42% increase in July.
• The top 1% of AI-using firms saw spending drop below $10,000 per employee in August and September, while median firms spend $12-$15 per employee monthly and the top 10% spend $600-$1,000.
• October data showed an 8.9% increase in token spend from September 23 to October 23, though headwinds on growth remain strong.
• OpenAI cut API prices by half for GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna in September, while Anthropic reduced pricing for Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5, a move that slashed revenue growth by approximately $600 million.
• Increased competition from Meta, Nvidia, open-source models, and new entrants like Jev has created a buyer's market with lower costs for enterprise offerings.
• Companies are becoming more efficient by using default settings, imposing budgets, and routing tasks to cheaper models to control expenses.
• Notion co-founder Akshay Kothari noted that while token usage increases, costs decrease, stating "tokens go brr. Costs go ahhh."
• Anthropic's potential valuation dropped from an estimated $2 trillion in early October to $1.2-$1.3 trillion, with reports of a high "junk" credit rating.
• OpenAI lowered its proposed valuation to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion and reduced fundraising goals by about $10 billion.
• Investors hope new use cases like personal agents will drive further growth, though experts remain skeptical that they will be as economically productive as AI coding.
• Ramp data indicates that AI spend has started to slow down based on currently available and commercially advanced products.