Interview
$1.9B AUM. 200+ Investments. 54 Exits. Inside M13
Core Philosophy: M13 operates on the premise that "ideas are cheap, execution is dear," focusing on out-executing the 5–10 other well-pedigreed, well-funded companies pursuing the same idea.
- The firm targets a 1% daily improvement rate, projecting a 37x performance gap against competitors by year-end if sustained.
- M13 believes they can create the next unicorn by "filling in gaps" and moving portfolio companies up the J-curve more efficiently.
Fund Performance & Metrics:
- M13's portfolio has raised approximately $800 million in rounds led by M13 over the last three years.
- These portfolio companies are raising Series B rounds 30% faster and at valuations 25% higher than the market median.
- The firm has achieved 54 exits and maintains a top-decile position in DPI (Distributed Paid-In).
- M13 spends over $1 million annually on its internal "propulsion team" (operating platform) to support portfolio companies with AI and tech stack optimization.
Investment Strategy & Allocation:
- Focus Areas: Early-stage seed and Series A checks in Future Work, Health, Commerce, and Money.
- Ownership Targets: M13 now aims for 20% ownership in companies (up from 10% in Fund 2) to maximize returns on winners, though they will accept 15% for high-conviction deals.
- Fund Discipline: The firm targets 30–35 high-quality checks per fund; they do not need $25B outcomes to return the fund, requiring only $3B outcomes.
- Sector Shifts: Investment thesis evolves with technological ripples; Fund 1 focused on the iPhone's application layer (D2C, Consumer Software), while Fund 2 moved toward the infrastructure layer and the future of commerce.
- Current Hype Caution: M13 advises against overpaying for foundational AI models, noting the risk of competing with tech giants (Google, etc.) on capital and talent; they prefer the "second and third waves" of AI disruption.
Portfolio Construction & Risk:
- M13 adheres to asymmetrical risk/reward, balancing high-conviction plays with "moonshots" (0–100x) while avoiding low-risk, low-reward 3x bets.
- The firm emphasizes "pattern recognition" (intuition based on data) over hype, noting that statistically, a company being a "$20B opportunity" is unlikely, but the upside justifies the risk if the entry is disciplined.
- AI Integration: M13 is running 60-day AI sprints with portfolio companies (e.g., Pietra) to integrate AI for efficiency, retention, and scaling.
Geographic Strategy (Los Angeles vs. San Francisco):
- M13 considers itself a national firm with offices in LA, NY, and SF, but maintains deep roots in LA, which historically generated $450 billion in enterprise value in the last cycle.
- The firm believes LA is in a "siesta" during the early innings of AI but predicts the second and third waves (media, culture, creators) will dominate in LA.
- Market Comparison: The LA venture market is 10x larger than Miami's; M13 sees SF as still competitive due to the AI influx but LA as the hub for consumer/creator disruption.
- California Wealth: Despite concerns over California's "billionaire tax" and wealth flight ($1 trillion estimated leaving), M13 notes the state's economy (if a country) is the 4th largest globally, and talent remains the critical factor over capital.
Talent & Operations:
- M13 has 40 employees, 39 of whom have operator backgrounds (none previously worked at a VC firm).
- The firm has a dedicated five-person talent team to assist portfolio companies with hiring, specifically focusing on technical AI roles and "first key hires."
- M13 adopts a "Sixth Man" approach in basketball terms, identifying 2–3 key drivers per company to help execute growth over the next 3–12 months.
Key Portfolio Highlights:
- Early Exits: M13 put the first million into Ring, and invested early in Pinterest and Lyft.
- Recent Success: Led Cedar's Series A in 15 unicorns; currently backing founders who have built unicorns previously (second-time founders).
- Specific Holdings: FormHealth (obesity management platform utilizing AI/telehealth), Life Force (longevity consumer health), Prepared (AI for 911 centers), and Skims (via associate Josh Kushner).
Founder & Personal Insights:
- Courtney Cowan: Emphasizes the importance of health and wellness as an "immutable truth," citing the hyper-awareness of health post-pandemic and the rise of longevity/obesity management.
- Carter Walden: Focuses on AI infrastructure and the "collective brain" of the network; maintains a disciplined approach to valuation and entry points.
- Biohacking: Both founders utilize cold plunges, infrared saunas, red light therapy, and cryotherapy.
- Carter uses a cryo chamber twice daily.
- Courtney practices "net zero dead time" by combining morning exercise/red light with email/Slack.
- Both prioritize sleep, diet, and exercise as the foundation, viewing biohacks as "sprinkles" that compound.
- Relationship Dynamics: Carter and his wife (CEO of a billion-dollar media company) operate as "teammates" with a work-life combination (no balance), focusing on mutual elevation and being "good human beings."
- Sports Influence: Both founders have deep sports backgrounds; Carter's recent experience with a relegation-bound Portuguese soccer team taught him lessons on culture, loyalty, and outperforming despite low resources.
Forward-Looking Statements & Trends:
- AI Landscape: M13 expects stablecoins to be a major winner in blockchain (Series A participated in a high-flying stablecoin company).
- Tech Disruption: The firm predicts the SpaceX IPO will create a trillion-dollar wealth event, positively rippling the ecosystem and enabling more angel investing in LA.
- Talent War: The "war for talent" is accelerating, with acqui-hires reaching billions (e.g., $6.5B) and creating a barrier to entry for non-tech giants; M13 sees non-technical talent acquisition as a key differentiator.
- Market Cycles: M13 believes they are in the early innings of AI, similar to the 1920s car boom, where the biggest money was made in real estate and gas stations (infrastructure) rather than car manufacturers.