Sep 5, 2018, 12:00 PM ETInterview, Fireside Chat

#10 - Dr Nick Beckstead on how to spend billions of dollars preventing human extinction

Nick Beckstead splits his current time primarily between two categories: supporting biology grantmaking at the Open Philanthropy Project and grantmaking to support the effective altruism (EA) community, specifically regarding existential risks.
Open Philanthropy's strategy involves philosophical analysis to allocate funds, considering ethical frameworks, population ethics, and moral uncertainty regarding the valuation of different causes.
Major science grants recommended by Beckstead include investments in Target Malaria (gene drives for malaria elimination), Impossible Foods (plant-based animal products), and Ed Boyden's lab at MIT (expansion microscopy for neuroscience).
Beckstead argues that the overwhelming potential value of the far future necessitates focusing on mitigating global catastrophic risks to ensure civilization survives and can utilize vast future resources.
He identifies the most pressing global catastrophic risks for Open Philanthropy as advanced artificial intelligence and biosecurity/pandemic preparedness, noting they are high-probability, high-impact, and currently underfunded.

Beckstead's PhD thesis, The Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future, posits that almost all potential utility exists in the distant future due to the vastness of time and space available to human civilization.
He rejects the "person-affecting view" of population ethics, which argues we should only weigh the interests of existing people, citing the "non-identity problem" and the intuitive asymmetry between creating happy lives versus averting hellish ones.
Beckstead argues against time discounting in moral philosophy, contending that it is widely rejected by philosophers who argue that benefits in the distant future are not intrinsically less valuable than present benefits.
He maintains that individuals and communities can meaningfully impact global catastrophic risks (e.g., nuclear war, pandemics, AI) despite the complexity, challenging the view that such impact is impossible or negligible.
Beckstead distinguishes between "narrow" interventions (bets on specific outcomes like AI safety) and "broad" interventions (improving general decision-making or economic growth), noting a personal and strategic shift toward narrower, more tractable causes as his confidence in specific risks increased.

Beckstead advocates for the EA community to move beyond "earning to give" and side projects, urging individuals to pursue full-time, specialized careers in high-impact areas to maximize their leverage.
He suggests the movement currently lacks a scalable model for mass participation similar to "Teach for America," and therefore should focus on filling high-value, specialized roles with existing talent.
For those interested in working at Open Philanthropy, he recommends gaining experience through internships at GiveWell or Open Phil, or developing deep specialist expertise in priority areas like AI or biosecurity.
AI Safety: He encourages quantitatively oriented individuals to join programs like Google Brain Residency or pursue CS PhDs in machine learning to work on technical alignment.
AI Strategy: He seeks sharp, judgment-capable individuals interested in politics and institutions to work on AI governance, suggesting they engage with existing literature and contact strategists like Luke Muehlhauser.
Biosecurity: He recommends pursuing PhDs in biology (immunology/vaccine R&D) or fellowships at centers like the Center for Health Security, or entering government policy roles.
Animal Welfare: STEM-focused individuals should pursue biology in the alternative protein space, while non-STEM individuals should pursue advocacy or work with grantees like those supported by Open Phil.

Clean Meat: Open Philanthropy was initially pessimistic about the tractability of cultured meat (in vitro meat) due to high estimated costs, leading them to invest instead in plant-based alternatives like Impossible Foods, though this view remains debatable.
Target Malaria: Grants supporting gene drive research for malaria eradication are projected to be more cost-effective per life saved than traditional bed net distribution, though the timeline for deployment may be long.
Economic Growth: Beckstead agrees with Tyler Cowan that economic growth has historically improved welfare but disagrees on the "s-curve" model, arguing that where civilization ends up (the final state) is more important than how quickly it gets there, due to the risk of extinction during the transition.
Broad vs. Narrow Interventions: He warns that broad tools like economic growth can unintentionally accelerate harmful activities, whereas narrow interventions targeting specific catastrophic risks (like AI alignment) offer a more direct path to shaping the far future.