Interview
#12 - Dr Cameron works to stop you dying in a pandemic. Here’s what keeps her up at night.
- Pandemic financing is expected to exit a cycle of neglect within approximately two years, potentially driven by the "From Panic to Neglect" report, though the establishment of a robust emergency response fund remains uncertain.
- A new biodefense strategy mandated in early 2017 is anticipated to generate renewed bipartisan activity over the next couple of years, while public health emergency financing mechanisms may eventually shift from supplemental funds to pre-existing, reliable streams via concepts like a Public Health Emergency Management Agency.
- By October, a competition for emerging leaders will launch ahead of the Kampala Global Health Security Agenda Ministerial, with NTI engaging additional next-generation leaders over the coming year to build a larger global community of biosecurity practitioners.
- The Global Health Security Agenda is projected to expand to include all 194 WHO member states and the 76 G7/G8-assisted countries, utilizing external evaluation mechanisms to track commitments, identify preparedness gaps, and ensure all leaders place pandemic preparedness on their agendas.
- If CDC funding does not increase beyond 2019, many globally working experts are expected to be recalled to the United States by the following year at the latest, whereas the African CDC is anticipated to eventually become a central pillar of continental infrastructure.
- Technology democratization is predicted to make creating pathogens from scratch increasingly easy, prompting a future fear that biological events in unstable regions could trigger nuclear miscalculations with long-term impacts.
- Future capabilities include a global risk assessment mechanism for discussing moratoriums on specific technologies, a "One Health" approach integrating human, animal, and environmental health as a standard, and the potential for pandemic prediction to become as reliable as weather forecasting.
- Specific initiatives like CEPI are expected to successfully scale vaccine development and establish platforms for any disease threat, while the DARPA Safe Genes Project aims to develop technologies to inhibit rogue gene editing, and the "Horsepox" discovery may spark high-level global conversations soon.
- The "Global Health Security Index" pilot will determine if common metrics can work universally to help countries demonstrate progress and secure funding, eventually leading to a state where all nations have the capacity to detect, stop, and manage outbreaks at the source.
- Long-term outlooks predict that international standards for dual-use technologies will emerge from holistic collaboration, stigma around Ebola survivors will be addressed through education, and the Department of Defense will continue leveraging overseas labs for early disease detection in partner countries.
- Financial mechanisms are expected to evolve toward catalytic financing that leverages domestic ministry funds, alongside solutions to "Barriers to Market" via guaranteed purchaser agreements, while the "International Genetically Engineered Machine Competition" and Stanford's "SynBioLeap" program will continue integrating safety with innovation.
- Advocacy and grassroots campaigns are predicted to elevate pandemic preparedness to a top priority alongside climate change and cybersecurity, with the "Global Dialogue" model being replicated in the biological sphere to improve biosecurity commitments and institutionalize high-level coordination similar to the White House Ebola Task Force.
- Over 50 to 100 years, humanity may be better positioned to handle dual-use technologies if immediate developments do not occur, and the "International Health Regulations" are expected to be fully implemented with necessary biosecurity metrics by all countries.
- Anthropolgical expertise is expected to become standard in outbreak response teams, and the integration of the "NextGen GHS Network" will provide mentorship and resources to young professionals, while the Global Health Security brand will facilitate explaining interdisciplinary components to future funders.