Interview, Podcast
#17 - Prof Will MacAskill on moral uncertainty, utilitarianism & how to avoid being a moral monster
- Submission of the co-authored book "Moral Uncertainty" with Toby Ord and Krista Bickfist is expected within one to one and a half years.
- Plans are underway to establish the Global Priorities Institute in Oxford, led by Hilary Graves and Michelle Hutchison, as the first academic entity dedicated to theoretical questions arising from effective altruism.
- Instruction of an undergraduate course on utilitarianism is scheduled to begin at Oxford.
- The Center for Effective Altruism, under CEO Tara McCauley, is expected to thrive following a leadership transition.
- A "long reflection" is proposed as a future goal requiring the reduction of existential risks to zero, followed by a period of tens of thousands of years dedicated to researching the meaning of life, potentially involving 10 billion people debating for 10,000 years.
- During the "long reflection," civilization is expected to reach a compromise minimizing locked-in commitments to single moral methodologies in favor of values broadly supported across perspectives, such as higher intelligence, empathy, and cooperation.
- The "long reflection" aims to allow time for technological advancement to vastly superior levels before humanity engages in deep moral research, potentially dedicating entire planets to academic philosophers.
- Potential outcomes of the "long reflection" include a convergent goal for civilization, a permanent mixture of different value systems, or a conclusion that some moral questions remain unresolved, necessitating diverse societal pursuits ranging from common sense flourishing to pure bliss.
- The field of effective altruism is projected to saturate regarding philosophers while economists continue to grow, suggesting marginal economists may contribute more to the community than marginal philosophers.
- Future generations are expected to view current moral beliefs, such as historical justifications for slavery, as a "moral travesty," implying current moral frameworks may be deeply mistaken.
- Arguments for classical utilitarianism are expected to be recognized as stronger than commonly acknowledged, supported by the progressive historical track records of figures like Bentham and Mill on issues including women's rights and animal welfare.
- A dominance argument for acting as if moral facts exist is suggested for nihilists, positing that moral facts existing offers a potential gain with no downside, whereas their non-existence results in no loss.
- The media's perception of effective altruism as focusing on short-term benefits and "earning to give" is characterized as badly misguided and lagging significantly behind the community's core emphasis on long-termism and existential risk reduction.
- Costs attributed to aggressive marketing around "earning to give" have created a lasting negative stereotype that does not reflect the explicit writings or actual views of the organization 80,000 Hours.
- Bias in philosophy publishing is expected to continue leading to the underdevelopment of practical ethics and over-development of decision theory, as the latter facilitates the demonstration of intellectual prowess more easily.
- Oxford's admissions interview process is described as inefficient, with data indicating tests are eight times better at predicting performance than interviews, yet interviews often drive immediate decisions.
- The community should increase epistemic diversity by welcoming diverse backgrounds and reducing the use of jargon as a barrier to entry.
- The most compelling argument against effective altruism is expected to be the theory that obligations of justice, such as rectifying historical wrongs related to colonialism and inherited wealth, might outweigh obligations of beneficence.
- The community is expected to actively seek "Cause X," an unknown cause vastly superior to current top causes, due to the limitations of current moral and empirical knowledge.
- Messaging should be updated more quickly to represent the "cutting edge" of community views to reduce the lag between internal consensus and external media perception.
- The "two envelope paradox" is identified as a favorite topic for discussion regarding infinite amounts of value.
- The speaker intends to invite Amanda Askel to a podcast to discuss infinite amounts of value.
- The "long reflection" is viewed as a necessary strategy to preserve option value, avoid irreversible mistakes, and ensure the human race does not go extinct in the coming centuries.