Interview, Fireside Chat
2023 Big Ideas in Technology (Part 2)
- Credit counseling and support services are projected to scale at significantly lower costs by 2023, with AI-driven systems expected to outperform human judgment on closed-domain credit optimization problems and provide private bank-like interactions, though initial errors remain a possibility.
- Wealth management advice is forecasted to become commoditized, leaving the empathetic "therapist" aspect of the profession as a distinct human differentiator.
- In 2023, compliance and risk management are anticipated to shift from background tasks to competitive advantages, driving demand for software solutions among companies of all sizes to manage third parties, cross-border regulations, and jurisdiction-specific procedures.
- Small modular reactors (SMRs) are expected to enter a growth phase with potential operational status within the next couple of years or before 2030, contingent on regulatory reforms to lower approval fees, accelerate timelines, and foster international coordination.
- The nuclear supply chain for SMRs is projected to offer significant opportunities in 2023 across uranium, cooling materials, manufacturing, transport, waste disposal, recycling, and coordinating software, while fusion remains further from scalable solution than SMRs.
- The space industrial base is expected to expand in 2023, driven by midstream refining of battery metals and rare earths, mass manufacturing of components like satellite buses, and the emergence of on-orbit servicing and manufacturing (OSAM) markets.
- Space companies are anticipated to achieve success by first serving mature markets such as earth observation and generating revenue through military and government contracts for domain awareness and life extension before commercial opportunities fully mature.
- Consumer health care is predicted to be a central focus in 2023, with the largest global company potentially being a consumer health tech firm scaling via either a vertically integrated "payvider" model or a horizontal infrastructure layer.
- Leaders in the consumer health sector are expected to be founders with combined deep expertise in technology and healthcare, as existing incumbents struggle to bridge the divide between the two fields.
- The healthcare technology stack is projected to shift from administrative efficiency to enabling risk-bearing for providers and collaboration among payers, with a specific focus on clinical AI/ML to support clinician decision-making and advanced actuarial capabilities for risk management.
- Direct-to-consumer care definitions are expected to expand to encompass any service characterized by patient loyalty and engagement, supported by increased utilization of remote monitoring and continuous measurement devices.
- Value-based care models are anticipated to become viable through the adoption of multimodal care delivery (virtual, home-based, community-based) designed to fundamentally reduce the overall cost structure of care.