2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
- The firm expects assets under management to reach approximately four billion dollars, while independent centrists are predicted to influence the 2024 election results.
- Fiscal conservatism and austerity are forecast as the major political winners for 2025, whereas progressivism is expected to lose significant ground across G8 nations including Canada, Germany, France, and the UK.
- A demographic shift among Gen X and elder millennials is anticipated to drive a "sea change" toward centrism, alongside the emergence of younger political candidates by the end of 2025, influenced by Trump's cabinet demographics averaging 40 to 45 years old.
- The Republican Party is predicted to undergo a transformation in 2024, replacing its traditional structure with a MAGA philosophy, while pro-war neoconservatives are expected to face a major fracture within their movement.
- Vladimir Putin is projected to suffer significant losses in 2025 due to European rearmament and unfavorable geopolitical deals, while the U.S. and China are expected to reach an agreement that isolates Russia.
- Donald Trump's administration is forecast to exhibit increased bellicosity to secure deals, with potential diplomatic outcomes, and a "repudiation of class-based identity politics" is expected to have global ripple effects.
- 2025 is identified as the year for autonomous hardware, with Unitree's GO2 robot priced at $1,600 and the G1 humanoid at $16,000 expected to enter scientific applications and test farms.
- Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is predicted to achieve mainstream adoption, while a shortage of GPUs and accelerators is expected in 2025 due to surging AI demand.
- Large enterprises utilizing AI are forecast to outperform small businesses, with one scenario estimating a $1 million cost for a six-week AI-driven thinking process.
- Dollar-denominated stablecoins are predicted to be the top business winner, potentially quadrupling or quintupling in usage by the end of 2025, with transaction volume in Q2 2024 expected to exceed $8.5 trillion, more than doubling Visa's volume.
- Google's Gemini deep research is expected to produce reports comparable to top consulting firms in 30 days for a fraction of the usual $1 million cost, while Apple is predicted to fail in AI due to perceived inferior intelligence.
- The traditional enterprise software sector is forecast to suffer significant decline due to cheaper, AI-native competitors, with "agents" expected to dominate the market in the second half of the year.
- OpenAI is predicted to reach its peak valuation in 2025 before losing market share to competitors like AWS, Apple, Google, and XAI, with a non-zero chance of legal failure regarding its transition to a for-profit structure.
- Traditional auto OEMs are expected to collapse or face massive mergers, with European companies like Volkswagen and Stellantis described as melting icebergs, while Tesla's position will drive the competitive landscape.
- Consolidation in the transportation sector is anticipated, with potential super-app partnerships among Amazon, DoorDash, Uber, Tesla, and Waymo, and Waymo potentially seeing a massive financing event or IPO after gaining 22% market share in San Francisco.
- The ride-sharing total addressable market is forecast to grow globally to 20%, up from the current 1.5%, driven by these consolidation efforts.
- Government service providers are predicted to be the biggest business losers due to efficiency checks by the "Department of Government Efficiency," while old defense providers like Boeing and Lockheed Martin are expected to face challenges from software-centric firms.
- Intel is expected to be involved in a significant deal, and frontier AI labs are predicted to be acquired as a wave of M&A follows four years of inactivity.
- High bandwidth memory from Hynix and Micron is forecast to be the best-performing asset due to compute constraints, while enterprise application software is predicted to be the worst-performing asset.
- Chinese tech stocks are expected to be the best-performing asset following a potential deal with the Trump administration, whereas real estate and legacy car companies are predicted to be terrible assets due to record debt.
- The "Mag7" index concentration is predicted to approach 40%, potentially triggering absolute dollar drawdowns in the trillions, though Jason Calacanis also predicts the "Mag7" will be the best-performing asset due to AI-driven earnings growth.
- Bitcoin is expected to reach $100,000, and credit default swaps (CDS) are suggested as insurance against a banking crisis in a major mainline bank.
- Artificial intelligence progress is predicted to accelerate, with more progress per quarter in 2025 than in 2023 or 2024, citing "reasoning" as a third axis of scaling leading toward Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI).
- The U.S. national debt is forecast to reach $38 trillion by December 2025, with regulatory maneuvers potentially extending debt issuance timelines of $10 to $20 trillion.
- Nuclear power build-out in the United States is expected to accelerate in 2025 due to deregulation, while funding for AI-driven predictive models in pharma and bioengineering is anticipated to continue growing.
- Media outlets owned by billionaires are predicted to shift toward the middle, and the Washington Post is expected to be sold by Jeff Bezos in 2025.
- Classified files including those related to JFK, Epstein, and Diddy are expected to be released by the Trump administration, potentially influencing a third-term political outcome if information on extraterrestrial life is disclosed.
- There is a stated 20 to 25 percent probability that the U.S. government possesses knowledge of extraterrestrial life, with advanced civilizations likely gathering information rather than moving biological bodies.
- Video games are predicted to undergo a dramatic rise with dynamic storylines, and the DC Universe is expected to produce amazing content including a Superman film and a live-action Clone Wars series.
- The MAGI representation on the S&P 500 is forecast to shrink below 30, while Google Cloud is predicted to have the largest dollar gain in revenue compared to Microsoft and AWS.
- Prediction markets will track specific political events, including the potential deportation of 750,000 people (5% of a stated goal) in Trump's first year, and independent market sections will track ongoing predictions for the firm's own markets.