Interview
#21 - Holden Karnofsky on times philanthropy transformed the world & Open Phil’s plan to do the same
80,000 HoursHolden Karnofsky, Margaret Sanger, Gregory Pincus, Katherine McCormick, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
- Open Philanthropy anticipates giving away billions over its lifetime, potentially increasing annual spending from the current $100 million–$200 million range, which may involve a two- to threefold expansion in focus areas over the coming decades.
- The organization plans to hire three to six full-time research analysts, growing its headcount from approximately 20, expecting these roles to mature into management positions or specialized fields like AI strategy within a three to five-year horizon.
- Future cause prioritization efforts will address the "worldview split" between different moral frameworks, a complex and intuitive challenge expected to persist for decades while requiring both philosophical and empirical analysis.
- A "hits-based" giving philosophy will guide a diverse portfolio of high-risk, high-reward grants in neglected areas, accepting that failing a majority of grants is acceptable if a single major success occurs.
- A "50-40-10 rule" for grant approval will allocate funds among fully justified grants, moderately supported ones, and 10% discretionary grants to balance program officer autonomy with accountability.
- In AI safety, the organization intends to build a robust field of experts over the next 20 years to improve global outcomes, specifically seeking calibrated probability distributions of AI timelines rather than specific dates.
- The grant to OpenAI is expected to support a safety-focused lab and set an industry tone, with the potential for renewal if OpenAI maintains its safety commitment regardless of direct attribution of success.
- If the initial capital is exhausted, the organization aims to evolve into a long-term intellectual institution providing insights to other philanthropists rather than maintaining a traditional endowment.
- Internal operations will prioritize truth-seeking and constructive disagreement, with hiring processes emphasizing work trials and generalizable skills like forecasting over traditional interviews.
- Operational efficiencies, including new legal and grants management staff, aim to accelerate the grant-making process to maximize impact, such as speeding up malaria eradication efforts.
- Competitive salaries below hedge fund levels will be offered to ensure staff motivation aligns with the mission, while pay and benefits are designed to attract talent capable of critical evidence evaluation.
- The organization will continue to support effective giving organizations like GiveWell through suggestions to individual donors, even if direct funding is limited by cause prioritization constraints.
- Hiring for program officers is viewed as the most critical decision for the organization's success, surpassing the initial selection of specific causes.
- The organization acknowledges the risk of disorientation among employees due to a culture of constant improvement that may lead to abandoning significant work if deemed insufficiently valuable.
- Specific tasks may be delayed by the current hiring push, but the investment is expected to yield new managers and skilled analysts who can handle the transition to larger budgets.