#32 - Bryan Caplan on whether his Case Against Education holds up, totalitarianism, & open borders

Core Thesis of "The Case Against Education":

• The primary payoff from formal education is not the acquisition of useful skills (human capital), but rather "signaling" (credentials) that convinces employers of a candidate's conformity, diligence, and intelligence.
• While signaling benefits the individual (higher wages), it is largely a zero-sum game for society; if everyone gains a credential without gaining new skills, the relative advantage cancels out, wasting societal resources.
• Evidence suggests that the social return on education is significantly lower than the private return once the signaling component is factored out.

Empirical Evidence Supporting Signaling Theory:

• Curriculum Irrelevance: A vast majority of coursework (e.g., trigonometry, specialized history) is never used in actual careers, yet students are forced to learn it to earn credentials.
• Student Priorities: Students strategically seek "easy As" and professors rated for ease of grading rather than those offering job-relevant skills; "Rate My Professor" historically prioritized "easiness" over "job relevance."
• The "Sheepskin Effect":
  • The wage premium for graduating is disproportionately large compared to the marginal skills gained in the final year.
  • Data indicates senior year in high school is worth roughly as much as the previous three combined; in college, the final year is worth roughly double the sum of the previous three.
  • This discrete jump at graduation suggests employers are signaling for "completeness" and conformity rather than incremental knowledge.
• Obsolescence of Knowledge: People frequently forget the specific material they studied, yet employers still treat the degree as a signal of ability because the degree itself is a verifiable record of past effort, whereas forgotten skills are indistinguishable from non-existent skills.

Policy Implications and Critiques:

• Taxpayer Spending: If education is primarily signaling, massive government subsidies for higher education represent a misallocation of resources; funds should be shifted toward vocational training which teaches tangible, immediately applicable skills.
• Credential Inflation: Reducing the prestige of degrees would theoretically improve outcomes for low-income students by restoring access to jobs that previously required a high school diploma, reducing the stigma against dropouts.
• Counter-Argument (Hanushek): Economist Eric Hanushek argues that math and science scores drive national GDP growth; Kaplan counters that these regressions likely omit intelligence as a variable and that most jobs do not use advanced STEM skills.
• Counter-Argument (Compulsory Education): Studies using changes in compulsory attendance laws to estimate causal effects are contested; a 2015 critique suggests these results are fragile and often disappear when controlling for regional trends (e.g., the economic rise of the American South).
• Transfer of Learning: Psychological research indicates "transfer of learning" (e.g., learning Latin to improve general thinking) is minimal and unreliable; skills tend to be compartmentalized unless specific instruction is given for application.

Specific Advice for Individuals and Careers:

• Major Selection: Economics is the highest-paid major with the lowest difficulty relative to STEM fields; for career maximization, choosing a hard major at a state school is superior to a soft major at an elite private school (unless the goal is a tenure-track professorship).
• College Attendance: Students who struggle in high school or have low completion probability should avoid college, as the "sheepskin premium" is inaccessible to dropouts who have already sunk costs into tuition without the credential.
• Graduate School:
  • Completion rates for PhDs are low; only those who were "stellar" in undergraduate studies have a high probability of finishing.
  • Humanities PhDs (e.g., History, Philosophy) have poor job markets; switching to an Economics PhD and studying the same topic (e.g., Economic History) offers a significantly higher probability of tenure and income.
  • Master's degrees generally have low returns due to high opportunity costs and modest wage premiums.
• Foreign Language Requirements: Kaplan argues for abolishing mandatory foreign language requirements in the US, noting that almost no jobs require them, the time investment is high, and proficiency rates remain near zero despite years of study.

Global Catastrophic Risks and Totalitarianism:

• Stability of Totalitarianism: The primary check on totalitarian regimes is the existence of non-totalitarian alternatives that provide better living standards and military competitiveness.
• Risk of Permanence: If a single regime controlled the entire globe (a "one-world government"), the loss of external comparison and military competition could allow totalitarianism to become permanent for millennia.
• Technological Stabilizers:
  • Life Extension: If totalitarian leaders could extend their lives significantly, regime stability would increase drastically (e.g., the Soviet Union might still be ruled by Stalin).
  • Social Credit & Surveillance: Technologies like China's social credit system and mass surveillance could stabilize authoritarian regimes by reducing the ability to organize dissent and creating a caste system based on political loyalty.
• International Coordination: While global institutions aim to reduce conflict, they carry the risk of stabilizing a bad global system by removing the competition that drives improvement; there is a trade-off between safety from war and safety from tyranny.

Effective Altruism and Moral Priorities:

• Immigration Deregulation: Kaplan identifies open borders as a top priority where utilitarian and deontological arguments converge; he views current immigration restrictions as a severe violation of human rights and economic efficiency.
• The "Deserving" Poor: Philanthropy should prioritize those unable to help themselves (e.g., children, the severely disabled) over those whose poverty stems from voluntary lifestyle choices (e.g., substance abuse, lack of work ethic), arguing that the latter group creates perverse incentives.
• Criminal Justice: A significant portion of the prison population (approx. 10% in federal prison) is incarcerated for immigration offenses; releasing these individuals would be a high-impact reform.
• Housing Deregulation: Removing zoning restrictions is a high-leverage area for improving welfare, though it lacks the "sexy" narrative of other causes and faces opposition from homeowners protecting property values.

Cultural and Political Observations:

• Political Socialization: Education does not significantly shift individuals toward liberalism or conservatism overall; it tends to make people more socially liberal and economically conservative, likely driven by peer effects rather than faculty indoctrination.
• Artistic Value: Kaplan argues for the objective value of opera over popular music for those willing to invest time, citing "increasing returns" in enjoyment due to the complexity of the art form.
• Nationalism: Opposition to open borders is largely rooted in tribal nationalism; most people prioritize their national identity over global welfare, even when the economic and humanitarian benefits of migration are clear.