Interview, Podcast
#37 - GiveWell picks top charities by estimating the unknowable. James Snowden on how they do it.
- Anticipated hiring of talent gaps through listener recruitment, including specific openings for part-time conversation note writers with potential conversion to research analyst roles, targeting candidates with quantitative backgrounds in economics, statistics, or analysis-focused consulting.
- Expectation of an annual directing budget of approximately $100 million to nine top charity recommendations, which remained relatively stable over the last two years despite a slight decline last year attributed to large donor fluctuations.
- Projection of decent growth among smaller donors to offset declines in large donations, with an overarching expectation that donations will generally yield greater impact in poorer countries.
- Strategic shift toward investigating policy-based giving opportunities and process-style research, evolving from broad topic exploration to focused work on macroeconomic policies, tax reform, and agricultural subsidies, while acknowledging these areas are difficult to evaluate compared to direct interventions.
- Planned partnership with ID Insights to conduct a survey in Kenya to assess beneficiary trade-offs, though this is expected to be challenging due to difficulties in eliciting consequentialist or utilitarian mindsets from participants.
- Intention to cease using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as the baseline for moral weights due to staff valuation differences regarding adult versus child life, with specific reference to the "time relative interest account" placing high value on preventing the death of an eight-year-old.
- Anticipated adjustments to charity rankings that view deworming charities favorably due to leverage from pharmaceutical and government matching funds, while expecting a slight penalization of the Against Malaria Foundation due to funging risks, with most other charities maintaining similar relative rankings.
- Future research inquiries into mental health (specifically depression), pesticide regulation's impact on suicide, and snake bites, with assessments noting psychotherapy's lower cost-effectiveness due to resource intensity and antidepressant drugs' potential effectiveness if delivered via healthcare systems rather than vertical charity programs.
- Operational expectations of a small number of grants that may limit quick feedback loops for learning, alongside a dual office culture featuring a serious "defeating silence" environment balanced by a vibrant, humorous internal Slack community.
- Outlook for field visits to provide personal development and intuitive program understanding, though current frequency is lower than other funders, and research agenda-setting is expected to involve staff cases for new topics rather than individual agenda ownership.