Interview
#6 - Dr Toby Ord on why the long-term future matters more than anything else & what to do about it
- 80,000 Hours plans to launch personalized coaching for individuals focused on long-term human prospects and expects listeners to apply for these services, while podcast subscribers will receive notifications for new episodes and may use playback speed features to accelerate listening.
- The podcast will feature detailed discussions on long-term attitudes comparable only to academic papers, emphasizing that effects on future generations are the primary focus for improving the world.
- Current anthropogenic risks, including nuclear war, synthetic biology, and artificial intelligence, are described as substantial threats to humanity's survival this century with a projected extinction risk of approximately one in six, whereas natural extinction risks have a mean interval between 200,000 and 100 million years.
- If extinction is avoided, human civilization could naturally continue for another 2,000 centuries, and humanity has the potential to spread to lifeless worlds, though survival over very long periods requires a unified civilization that never goes to war with itself.
- Human civilization could face collapse within a day from nuclear war, potentially reducing society to the Stone Age or causing total extinction, yet the Earth remains habitable for 500 million to a billion years.
- Technological advancement is expected to outpace wisdom growth, with farming likely phased out over the next 100 to 200 years and ethically raised animal products becoming widely available at a marginal cost increase.
- Individuals can move the needle on existential risk probabilities even with small impacts, and the optimal portfolio of action for reducing future risks is expected to be identifiable.
- Mitigation strategies include reaching a "safe position" by the end of the century where unknown unknown risks decrease, with Earth-based desert refuges projected to be more cost-effective for risk reduction than colonizing Mars.
- Historical events such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, the autumn equinox incident, and actions by figures like Stanislav Petrov and Vassily Arkhipov are cited to illustrate the proximity of existential threats and the importance of preventing correlated global risks.
- While the current generation largely grew up without the Cold War shadow, future ethical treatment of animals is expected to improve with prosperity, and preserving humanity is valued for the option it provides regarding future moral arguments.