Interview
8 years as an ambassador fighting WMD terrorism | Bonnie Jenkins (2019)
- The podcast is expected to implement chapters to facilitate navigation of specific sections in long episodes (two to three hours), with potential expansion to all apps, though technical issues may require resolution.
- Ambassador Jenkins plans to continue teaching global threats and focusing on weapons of mass destruction, arms control implications of US treaty withdrawals, and the shifting relationship with Russia.
- Infectious disease trends are hoped to improve or change after 2020, though this outcome is not certain, and there is a possibility of improved peace, while the future remains unpredictable.
- Concerns exist regarding US leadership failures on climate change, the failure to connect climate change to ocean biodiversity, water scarcity, and food scarcity, and the risk that current trajectories lead to economic downturns and species loss.
- Risks include the dual-use nature of technology enabling engineered pandemics, the inadvertent spread of nuclear knowledge from peaceful programs, and the escalation potential of miniature tactical nuclear weapons indistinguishable from larger warheads.
- The biological weapons convention is anticipated to require significant strengthening and a verification regime, despite current lack of country readiness, though countries may choose to strengthen it in the future given their sovereignty.
- The Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) is predicted to continue operating and receiving funding in 2019 and beyond, while the lack of new nuclear acquisitions and major biological attacks are viewed as positive stability signs.
- It is predicted that the Ukraine situation sets a negative precedent for nations that give up weapons of mass destruction, and it will become harder to persuade North Korea to disarm now that it possesses them.
- Sanctions relief may be needed to persuade North Korea, though its efficacy is uncertain, and the US credibility is expected to suffer more from treaty withdrawals than from unfulfilled threats in Syria.
- The international community is likely to be less willing to engage in new agreements if existing treaties like the Iran deal are abandoned after compliance, and nations may be less likely to negotiate if treaties are torn up following compliance.
- European, Russian, and Chinese approaches to Iran are expected to offer better lessons than the current US strategy, and the US may learn from the trade-offs other nations make regarding global threats.
- It is expected that diplomacy will be used to maintain relationships between countries like Pakistan and India before conflicts arise, and leaders generally have restraint in verifying threats before retaliating against nuclear false alarms, though this depends on specific leadership.
- US foreign policy attention is predicted to receive less focus than domestic issues, while norms regarding diplomatic conduct, such as avoiding personal attacks, are expected to remain broken.
- Former administration officials are likely to be more willing to criticize current policies due to heightened concerns, and they believe government roles remain the most direct avenue for policy impact alongside think tanks and NGOs.
- Professionals may need to take stepping stone or volunteer roles to enter federal government, and the WCAPS pipeline program is expected to expand to junior high, high school, and graduate students to strengthen the future workforce.
- WCAPS initiatives and networking are anticipated to reach thousands of people and increase visibility for women of color, though US culture is viewed as resistant to diversity change due to traditional structures.
- Acknowledging differences and addressing racism is deemed necessary to prevent a false sense of security and empower diverse voices, while the Sustainable Development Goals are seen as positive indicators of international recognition and reporting.
- Young people marching for a better future is considered a significant positive indicator for international cooperation, and the speaker hopes the trend toward peace continues despite the lack of guarantee.
- There is a theoretical possibility that a civil servant might leave a job they deem immoral, and the speaker is uncertain about returning to the executive branch in the future, noting "anything can happen."