90% of AI tokens will be asynchronous | Matan Grinberg, Factory

Current AI Consumption Trends

• Revenue growth is accelerating, driven primarily by "crazy" increases in synchronous usage.
• Current demand relies on explicit user triggers (e.g., "hey cloud code"), making usage highly dependent on active human intervention.
• Synchronous usage models are fragile; revenue would collapse to near zero if human prompting stopped (e.g., if users were "all sick").

Projected Shift to Asynchronous Usage

• Forecast predicts that within 12 to 24 months, 90% of tokens will be generated asynchronously.
• Sub-point: Future workflows will shift toward autonomous agents ("droids") initiating actions without prompts.
• Sub-point: Key asynchronous behaviors include autonomously identifying customer signals and initiating fixes or generating first-pass solutions.

Transition from Co-Pilot to Agent-Native Mode

• The industry is currently in "co-pilot mode," where the human must initiate the agent's task.
• True "agent-native" usage begins when systems operate autonomously rather than acting solely as extensions of user commands.
• Sub-point: While current agents may not require extensive clarification loops, they still require an external trigger to start.