Panel, Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat
A Conversation with Adm. Michael Mullen and Gen. Stanley McChrystal
Milken InstituteAdm. Michael Mullen, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Susan Eisenhower, Stanley McChrystal, Michael Mullen
- The Middle East crisis is projected to generate specific, intense challenges for a 50-year period that will not resolve quickly, requiring constant management of changing situations for current and future generations.
- Global indebtedness is expected to constrain political leaders and force engagement between the US and China to avoid massive conflict, while US interest on national debt is projected to become the third-largest budget item within 10 years if entitlements remain unaddressed.
- The outlook warns that reduced US active duty Army levels of approximately 350,000 would necessitate a call-up of half a million personnel for conflicts, sparking national debates on warfare, whereas maintaining this force size could sustainably support 100,000 deployed troops.
- Russia is identified as the primary geopolitical worry, with isolated policies predicted to potentially drive the nation toward strategic nuclear use, while a solid, 50-to-60-year alliance between China and Russia is anticipated if US actions push them closer together.
- In the South China Sea, persistent Chinese patrols are expected to establish a "new reality" driving neighbors west, requiring continued US presence to contest claims despite expectations that large-scale conflict is unlikely over the next several years.
- Military strategy faces headwinds including the short 50-year utility of equipment, necessitating capability building as events unfold, alongside a shrinking pool of enlistable youth due to under-education.
- Non-state actors and terrorists are forecast to persist and cause harm through the democratization of technology even if groups like ISIS disappear, while US governance is predicted to shift from central control to decentralization to manage simultaneous crises like North Korea.
- Domestic political trends include increasing polarization from primary-driven elections, a diminishing "hope candle" for the middle class, and a potential loss of the historical meaning of citizenship without new linking experiences.
- The US fiscal outlook suggests that failing to address the debt will cause national security options to recede, and isolationist strategies are deemed a "failed" approach for the globalized world.
- Historical precedents are noted as significant to China's strategic calculus, implying that US actions in the early 1900s remain relevant to future relations and that retired officers may face reduced selection for leadership if they criticize policy.