Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Interview
A Conversation with Barry Diller (updated)
- The Milken Institute session format is predicted to become a recurring intimate event, while the Syrian conflict is a potential but uncertain addition to discussions due to time constraints.
- Video content distribution is forecast to undergo a revolution replacing the 40-year-old closed cable and satellite systems, driven by Aereo's anticipated expansion to 22 cities by year-end and a subscriber goal of 10 to 20 million.
- Legal challenges facing Aereo are expected to conclude soon, though there is a risk of Congress overriding court decisions to prevent the business from operating.
- Cable's "bold bundle" is deemed unsustainable if alternatives emerge, as rising prices and low sports viewership (approximately 10% for channels like ESPN) drive consumers toward internet protocols and devices like Apple TV, Roku, and potentially Amazon becoming standard within the next couple of years.
- Google's search dominance with 65% U.S. and 95% global market share is projected to persist as long as observed, while Microsoft is seen as a potential competitor due to its resources despite uncertainty in market capture.
- The movie industry faces an eventual erosion of the theatrical-only model by home entertainment, though theaters are expected to endure due to their unique community experience.
- Digital video production costs are predicted to drop significantly, potentially reducing costs for scenes from $120,000 to $12,000, and the music business is transitioning to an internet-distributed model with recovery attributed to services like Pandora and Spotify.
- The newspaper industry is expected to persist for a while but transform into "information distribution systems" without print, with the New York Times projected to grow its subscription base and profitability as internet norms shift away from free content.
- The travel industry is forecast to grow wonderfully, particularly in the Asian market, with business travel rebounding despite virtual technology predictions.
- Yahoo's success depends on new product introductions, while Rupert Murdoch's standalone print business is predicted to become profitable and "dangerous," and Jeff Zucker is expected to energize CNN through a gutsy broadcasting approach.
- HSN is expected to grow into a powerhouse under Mindy Grossman, and the internet technology hub is predicted to expand beyond Silicon Valley into New York due to available technical talent.
- Internet communication is viewed as the primary medium, necessitating the preservation of net neutrality, while specific internet ventures may fail, though the concept of selling virtual goods like shrimp is dismissed.
- Demographic shifts indicate that those under 25 view reading newspapers as "crazy," supporting the long-term decline of traditional print formats.
- Cloud storage and internet protocol delivery of all content are anticipated once infrastructure improves, allowing consumers to save data remotely.