Conference Presentation, Interview
A Conversation with Brian Deese, Director, White House National Economic Council
- The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.9 percent in December, reflecting a reduction pace four years faster than anticipated.
- Economic growth for 2021 is forecast to conclude between 5 and 6 percent, with household incomes expected to rise in real terms due to wage increases and American Rescue Plan support.
- A sustained support bridge provided by the American Rescue Plan is intended to transition into longer-term "Build Back Better" initiatives, starting with the bipartisan infrastructure law, to embed durability into the 2022 recovery.
- Infrastructure investment growth in the coming year is expected to outpace China's for the first time in two decades, with public capital deployed at scale to expand EV charging networks in rural and less dense areas.
- Goals include achieving universal high-speed affordable internet access and building a 21st-century interoperable electricity grid, both requiring partnerships with private capital.
- The administration plans to accelerate permitting through a federal council to facilitate deployment, alongside a $3 billion regional challenge component to empower local communities.
- If fully funded investments in productive capacity are realized, the economy may grow more sustainably with reduced long-term price pressures.
- Expected benefits of the "Build Back Better" framework include reduced costs for families and municipalities regarding childcare, healthcare, prescription drugs, and climate change impacts.
- Risks currently under monitoring include supply chain bottlenecks, potential labor supply disruptions from the omicron variant, and geopolitical challenges involving military action in Ukraine and global energy markets.
- Capital flow is anticipated to accelerate rapidly once specific market tipping points are reached, though the arrival of these breakpoints may take longer than currently expected.
- The outlook suggests that the U.S. industrial capability trajectory will reverse by next year, with the administration confident in demonstrating significant outcomes over the next couple of years.