Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Interview
A Conversation with David Miliband
- Continental Europe is predicted to reach an optimism level not seen for approximately 10 years, with the European Union expected to achieve 2% economic growth compared to the previous 1%.
- A renewal of the Franco-German partnership is anticipated, driven by France's political direction and the absence of the UK, with the speaker expecting Angela Merkel to prioritize cementing Germany's role as a co-leader.
- While Brexit is viewed as an existential threat that has diminished, the EU's future is expected to gain momentum from a sense of sadness, though the speaker considers a "soft Brexit" impossible and predicts a "hard Brexit" as the only realistic outcome.
- The UK government is expected to face chaos in its negotiating strategy regarding the Irish border, with the speaker fearing long-term harm to the nation's economic, social, and political standing due to leaving the EU.
- Parliament is expected to be responsible for scrutinizing the deal and putting both the divorce and future trading arrangements to a public vote, while the speaker hopes to reverse the Brexit outcome within a two-year period while maximizing its success.
- The Conservative Party's internal political dynamics are seen as making a soft Brexit impossible, potentially leaving the UK with a hard Brexit that lacks explicit public mandate.
- Donald Trump is expected to remain in office for at least another three years, though re-election is not ruled out.
- The first half of the 21st century is predicted to be defined by the construction of walls and a long-term global trend of population displacement, where climate change and resource stress will act as conflict multipliers.
- The International Rescue Committee anticipates a budget increase from $430 million four years ago to a current $730 million, with private funding share rising from 10% to 20% and current annual private fundraising targets between $160 million and $170 million.
- The International Rescue Committee plans to allocate $100 million to address toxic stress among under-8-year-olds in the Middle East contingent on winning the MacArthur Prize.
- The organization notes that while the war in Iraq was won militarily, the peace was lost due to strategic errors in Afghanistan and the strengthening of Iran, though the speaker maintains that the use of force remains necessary to protect civilians within a global system avoiding militarized diplomacy.
- The speaker expects the European Union to view the loss of Britain as a source of unity rather than a terminal crisis, despite the UK's anticipated hard exit.