Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat
A Conversation with David Miliband
- Continental Europe is projected to experience stability exceeding that of the previous decade, driven by a renewed Franco-German partnership and economic growth prospects reaching 2% compared to the previous 1%.
- The EU leadership dynamic is expected to shift toward a Franco-German motor, necessitated by the absence of Britain and reinforced by the political decisions in France and Germany to co-lead the European project.
- The global refugee crisis is anticipated to be a defining long-term trend of the 21st century, persisting for decades due to weak states, political divisions, and climate change acting as a conflict multiplier.
- US refugee intake is predicted to drop to approximately 15,000 annually from a historical average of 90,000, while the UK is expected to admit only 4,000 to 5,000 refugees per year.
- Displacement patterns indicate that the average duration of displacement is 10 years, and individuals displaced for five years face a 21-year trajectory of forced migration.
- Political scenarios suggest Donald Trump will remain in office for at least another three years, sustained by a politics of grievance that makes re-election a possibility.
- Long-term geopolitical consequences are forecasted from the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will structure Asian politics around China, and the UK's hard Brexit, driven by Conservative Party internal dynamics.
- The UK's Brexit process is described as potentially flawed regarding the Irish border and labor market entry strategies, with suggestions that a future vote on final trading arrangements is necessary and that closer ties to the EU remain the optimal goal.
- Current humanitarian funding structures are criticized for allocating significantly less than 2% to education and less than 6% to cash payments for displaced children, with recommendations to increase these proportions.
- The International Rescue Committee currently raises $160 to $170 million annually from private sources, representing a 20% funding base, and would dedicate $100 million from a potential MacArthur Prize to address toxic stress in Middle Eastern children under age 8.
- A comprehensive policy package addressing work rights, education, cash assistance, and resettlement is identified as essential to making the refugee crisis manageable, whereas the UN Migration Compact's voluntary nature and the US withdrawal are viewed as signs of dangerous de-globalization.
- The global humanitarian budget and international institutions are considered too weak for current globalization levels, with the EU lacking sufficient coordination on refugee, energy, and peacekeeping policies.