A Conversation with Eric Schmidt | Global Conference 2025

War Status and Current Dynamics

• The conflict in Ukraine has evolved through three phases: initial Russian invasion, Ukraine's drone-centric strengthening, and a recent shift to a balanced state with a new Russian "Spring Offensive" near Pokrovsk.
• As of the interview, the front line is approximately 10 kilometers deep, functioning as a de facto DMZ where the "safe" rear areas have significantly expanded.
• Eric Schmidt characterizes the current stalemate as "Russia is not winning and Ukraine is not losing," though this balance remains highly volatile.

Ukrainian Capabilities and Innovation

• Ukraine aims to build 10 million drones by the end of the year, predominantly First-Person View (FPV) drones.
• Ukraine has replaced its lack of an air force and navy with drone systems, including destroying the Russian Black Sea fleet using drone boats.
• The emerging architecture involves a "drone line" integrating high-endurance ISR drones (12-hour flight time) with bomber drones, leading to full automation.
• Ukraine utilizes a point-reward system for startups requiring proof of kill, fostering rapid iteration on a 24-7 basis with daily software releases.
• Radio communication networks using spread-spectrum and LoRa technologies have been developed to penetrate Russian electronic warfare (EW) and operate in GPS-denied environments.

Russian Adaptations and Tactics

• Russia has adapted by mass-producing the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drone and pioneering glide bombs (1,000–3,000 kg) launched from Su-34 aircraft.
• Ukraine initially countered glide bombs with .50 caliber machine guns but is transitioning to using FPV drones to intercept the Orlan-30 control drones.
• Russian tactics have shifted from Soviet-style "wave attacks" using vulnerable human groups to more effective "rifle team" formations.
• Russia blocks GPS and visual confirmation, necessitating human operators to manually adjust targeting, which limits the effectiveness of pure AI-guided munitions.

Technological Shifts and Future Warfare

• The "OODA loop" (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) is being compressed from human decision times (3–5 minutes) to sensor-to-shooter times of mere seconds.
• Schmidt predicts the end state of modern warfare will rely on Reinforcement Learning (RL) to manage simultaneous, AI-driven defense and offense at scales humans cannot plan.
• Tank usage has collapsed due to a kill ratio of 1,000 to 1 or higher; a $5,000 drone can destroy a $30 million Abrams tank.
• Future combat will be prosecuted over the internet via robotic systems, rendering manned platforms like fighter jets and aircraft carriers obsolete due to their visibility to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) surveillance.

Critique of U.S. Military Procurement

• The U.S. Department of Defense operates on a 16-year weapon development cycle, contrasting sharply with the 3–6 week innovation cycles observed in Ukraine.
• Schmidt argues the Pentagon is structured like a "bad 1980s corporation" with 435 board members (Congressional representatives), making cancellation of projects and coherent strategy impossible.
• Current procurement processes involve a 2-year study, 2-year writing period, 2-year development, 3–4 years of vendor execution, and litigation delays, which stifles adoption of innovative tech.
• The Pentagon struggles to hire and retain "softer people" (software/AI experts) because traditional accounting models cannot quantify their value, leading to their dismissal.

Strategic Recommendations for the U.S.

• Schmidt suggests the U.S. should pivot from expensive, stationary platforms (like aircraft carriers) to affordable, autonomous systems capable of operating below the waterline to counter hypersonic missiles and prevent land invasions in the Taiwan Strait.
• He advocates for the U.S. to leverage its startup ecosystem, noting that while U.S. startups are innovative, they are often blocked by a government customer unwilling or unable to move at "startup speed."
• Schmidt warns that without adapting to autonomous systems, the U.S. lacks effective defenses against hypersonic threats and future high-intensity conflicts.
• He notes that in a real war, procurement rules would likely be suspended, but the current peacetime culture prevents necessary modernization of the military budget and force structure.