Interview, Fireside Chat
A Conversation with Jamie Dimon
- Jamie Dimon attributes stagnant growth and middle-class income stagnation to "stupidity" and "bad public policy" rather than secular trends or monetary policy failures.
- Dimon cites specific data points to illustrate the severity of U.S. structural issues:
- The prime-age (25-55) male job participation rate has dropped from 96% to 86%, the lowest of any developed nation.
- Approximately 20 million felons face employment barriers post-release.
- 35,000 people die annually from opioid overdoses.
- 70% of Americans aged 17-24 cannot join the military due to literacy deficits, obesity, or diabetes.
- Infrastructure deficits are highlighted by the fact that the U.S. has not built a major airport since Denver 20 years ago, whereas China built 75 in the last decade.
- Permitting delays are cited as a critical bottleneck, with an average of 10 years required to secure permits for a single bridge.
- Dimon argues that the political dysfunction is bipartisan, stating that "knee-jerk reactions" between Democrats and Republicans have collectively caused the policy failures.
- Dimon defends his participation in the Trump administration's strategic business advisory council as a patriotic duty, noting that voting for the "pilot of the airplane" is necessary when invited to serve.
- He expresses confidence in the current administration's personnel, citing the appointment of respected military and economic figures such as Gen. Mattis, Gen. Kelly, Gen. McMaster, Steve Mnuchin, Wilbur Ross, and Gary Cohn.
- Dimon identifies three core pillars for the administration's agenda:
- Corporate Tax Reform: Necessary to reverse the 10-year trend of capital and talent moving overseas; Dimon asserts reform enhances growth and increases wages.
- Infrastructure Investment: Viewed as "spot on" for job creation.
- Regulatory Reform: Specifically regarding "cost-benefit, two out, one in" approaches to reduce the burden of excessive rules.
- Dimon highlights a specific regulatory failure: the lack of mortgage securitization reform involving seven different regulators, which he estimates has cost the economy nearly $500 billion in potential mortgages and 0.3-0.4% annual GDP growth over five years.
- He proposes that mortgage reform specifically would unlock credit for "lower FICO, younger, immigrant, self-employed, and prior default" borrowers, potentially creating millions of jobs and new households.
- On tax policy, Dimon supports eliminating the "carried interest" loophole and lowering corporate tax rates.
- Dimon advocates for significantly expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) to include single men and those earning below a living wage, noting the current program lifts 9 million people out of poverty at a cost of $60 billion.
- He calls on CEOs to abandon "parochial" self-interest, citing an example where he urged Business Roundtable members to oppose state tax deductions for New York and California, which he views as federal subsidies for "profligate states."
- Dimon identifies "bad public policy" as his primary long-term risk to the U.S., fearing it leads to social fragmentation, "meanness" in immigration debates, and lost opportunities for inner-city youth.
- Regarding geopolitical risks, Dimon notes that while he expects China to remain a developed nation, JPMorgan Chase prepares for worst-case scenarios, including the possibility of China expelling foreigners as it did in the 1300s and during the Mao era.
- Dimon explicitly ruled out seeking elected office or civil service, stating it is "too late" in his career and that his ability to help the country lies in his current role as a business leader.
- JPMorgan Chase reports that 30% of its top 200 employees and 30% of its direct reports are women, with 20% identifying as LGBT.
- Dimon attributes this diversity success to "trust, respect, and openness," rather than gender-specific programs which he believes can be counterproductive, though he supports "Women on the Move" and "Women Here" initiatives.
- He challenges industry assumptions that diversity takes decades to achieve, noting an Oliver Wyman report predicted 30% female executive representation on Wall Street would not occur for 30 years, whereas JPMorgan has already achieved it.
- Dimon states that several women are in the succession pipeline for the CEO role, estimating a "pretty good odds" for the next CEO to be a woman.