Fireside Chat, Interview, Conference Presentation
A Conversation with Paul Ryan
- The U.S. economy is projected to experience another period of very good growth this year, with a strong economic foundation maintained for the remainder of the year and the elimination of trade uncertainty's negative impact, which previously reduced growth by approximately 0.25 percentage points.
- Trade uncertainty is expected to be temporarily suspended this year, resulting in a hiatus on trade fights, while the UK is anticipated to move forward with a trade agreement once able to do so.
- In the event of a second Trump term, the outlook includes the likely extension and renewal of current tax code provisions such as full expensing and lower pass-through entity rates, pursuit of health care reform to lower premiums and reduce national debt, pursuit of additional trade agreements including one with the UK, and infrastructure initiatives focused on asset recycling for roads and bridges and replacing the gas tax.
- Long-term decoupling from China, particularly in the technology sector, is expected to be permanent, while efforts to institutionalize Middle East cooperation through the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MISA) are anticipated to be redoubled in a second Trump term with the ultimate goal of a GCC-wide trade agreement involving Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Morocco, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
- Long-term continuity in American alliances with the Gulf region will be established to ensure the U.S. is perceived as a reliable partner across different administrations.
- Sustained wage growth and low unemployment rates are identified as required conditions to address economic anxiety feeding political polarization, which is expected to continue if parties view dividing the electorate as a successful strategy, while center-right principles and policies are predicted to be vindicated to maintain current policy direction rather than swinging toward populist progressive policies.
- Paul Ryan's current life phase is expected to allow him to raise his three high school children and know them as desired, a scenario that would not be possible if he remained Speaker.