A Conversation with US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker | Middle East & Africa Summit 2025

Ambassador Matt Winokur's Appointment and Background

• Winokur is serving his third term in U.S. federal government, most recently as U.S. Ambassador to NATO in Brussels.
• His prior federal service includes:
  • U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa.
  • Chief of Staff at the Department of Justice during the Trump administration, eventually serving as Acting Attorney General.
• He brings a background as a lawyer (private practice and prosecutor) and a former collegiate American football player to the role.

Core Mandate: NATO Spending and Defense Responsibilities

• The primary objective is to secure European and Canadian allies' commitment to equalize conventional defense spending with the United States.
• President Trump has secured the political commitment for this shift; Winokur's role is to ensure follow-through via year-over-year spending increases.
• Current spending disparities are highlighted, with nations like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania already allocating 5% of GDP to military defense.
• Winokur asserts that all European nations are now effectively on the "eastern flank" due to hypersonic missiles capable of reaching any capital within 15–20 minutes.

Strategic Shifts in Warfare and Acquisition

• The Ukraine conflict has driven a transition away from "exquisite," high-cost systems toward affordable, scalable solutions; one Patriot interceptor cost exceeds the price of many target drones.
• There is a critical push to develop autonomous robots and counter-UAV/UAS capabilities for the front lines, potentially replacing soldiers with unmanned systems.
• The Department of War and Pentagon are reforming acquisition processes to enable rapid innovation and cost reduction in drone and autonomous warfare technology.
• Military education is evolving to prioritize AI, cybersecurity, and the realities of modern drone warfare.

Geopolitical Threats and Alliances

• The strategic environment is described as increasingly volatile, characterized by long periods of war interrupted by short peace, driven by "peace through strength."
• Adversary coordination is intensifying, with China supporting Russia's war efforts and North Korea providing direct support to Russia.
• The Arctic is identified as a new critical theater for defense due to opening sea lanes, resource access, and interests from non-Arctic nations like China.
• Winokur expresses concern over "reckless" and unpredictable behavior from Russian leadership.

NATO Engagement in Middle East and Africa

• NATO maintains partnership platforms including the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain) and the Mediterranean Dialogue (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, etc.).
• Focus areas for these partnerships include counterterrorism, cyber security, maritime security, and critical infrastructure resilience.
• Demographic growth in Africa presents challenges regarding irregular migration into Europe and potential regional instability.
• Winokur cites the "Sahel" region as a source of destabilization affecting the "southern neighborhood" of NATO.

Societal Readiness and Future Outlook

• Countries like Finland and Sweden are cited as models for "all-of-society" readiness, where a significant portion of the population serves as trained reserves.
• The U.S. aims to emulate this societal integration, though adoption levels differ from European neighbors.
• Winokur identifies three key indicators of progress for the coming year:
  • Ending the conflict in Ukraine.
  • Implementation of free, fair trade policies and reduced regulations.
  • Initiation of dialogue with historic adversaries to resolve conflicts rather than treating them as zero-sum games.
• Winokur characterizes President Trump as a "peacemaker" seeking to resolve historic animosities, citing recent peace agreements involving African nations.

Philosophical and Historical Context

• Winokur contrasts the U.S. forward-looking mindset with Europe's deep engagement with historical context, border disputes, and centuries of conflict.
• He warns that history suggests conflict is likely to repeat if leaders fail to resolve issues without war, noting that "those who do not understand history are doomed to repeat it."
• The goal is to achieve "durable peace" that avoids the pitfalls of past treaties (e.g., post-WWI) that required relitigation.