Fireside Chat, Interview, Keynote, Conference Presentation
A Conversation with Vivian Balakrishnan, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Singapore | Asia Summit 2026
- The global "happy tango" between the US and China is projected to end due to political polarization and economic imbalances, ushering in a period of "unsettled times" characterized by the need for domestic rebalancing and a new world order.
- Future success for middle powers and smaller states hinges on mastering AI, biotech, and energy revolutions while restructuring domestic economies and software capabilities, with ASEAN anticipated to become the world's fourth-largest composite economy with significant growth potential over the next 20 years.
- Economic growth is expected to persist despite supply chain disruptions and order breakdowns, evidenced by Vietnam's 8+ percent growth and Singapore's 6.1 percent GDP growth in the first half of the current year, though societies face limits on their ability to adapt quickly enough to avoid paralysis driven by fear.
- Singapore intends to maintain its status as a wealth management hub by doubling down on a "premium on trust," refusing to confiscate earned wealth, maintaining transparency, and avoiding the panic seen in other systems.
- To preserve strategic options and latitude, Singapore plans to refuse choosing between the US and China, resisting use as a proxy or lever by either superpower while adhering to a clear, steady, and principled position rather than a reactive strict balance.
- The government aims to stay relevant by retaining the ability to say "no" to superpowers based on enlightened long-term national interests, asserting that losing this autonomy would cause assets under management and people to leave.
- Risks include the potential "leakiness" of Strait of Hormuz interdictions and the threat that allowing Iran to charge tolls could lead to unacceptable strategic dominance, alongside the danger of rogue state and non-state actors using AI to create new weapons of disruption or mass destruction.
- Long-term transformation by AI and synthetic biology is expected despite short-term volatility and bubbles, with the specific caveat that AI agents trained on internet data will mimic human behavior, including violence and bias, and that claims of absolute control over autonomous agents are impossible.
- Singapore anticipates being assessed on its own merit as a credible, significant economy rather than an arena for superpower contestation, aiming to secure economic rewards and social stability by acting as a constructive solution maker during a "wonderful time to be alive" despite the "hell of a lot of things" happening.