A losing battle: Sudan’s elusive peace deal

Sudan Civil War Status and Trends

• The conflict, ongoing since April of the previous year, involves the Sudanese army versus the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), creating the world's worst humanitarian crisis with tens of thousands dead, millions displaced, and widespread famine.
• The RSF, which previously controlled most of Khartoum and nearly all of Darfur, is currently on the verge of capturing the Darfuri capital, al-Fasher, after a longer-than-expected campaign.
• The army has made significant inroads into RSF-controlled areas of Khartoum and secured positions in the south with the help of allied militias.
• A senior RSF commander's defection to the army triggered brutal retaliatory attacks on civilians in RSF-held areas, described by observers as resembling ethnic cleansing in west Darfur.

Negotiation Prospects and Diplomatic Developments

• Previous negotiations in Switzerland failed in August after the army refused to attend; current chances for a negotiated settlement remain distant and are not expected to be imminent.
• RSF negotiator El-Zadeen al-Safi proposes a deal based on a ceasefire, freezing current battle lines, and establishing demilitarized buffer zones around civilian installations enforced by African peacekeepers.
• Al-Safi's proposed dialogue would exclude members of the former ruling party and Islamists, whom the RSF identifies as key instigators of the war.
• The RSF has publicly committed to keeping Sudan united, countering the army's narrative that it must fight to prevent the country's breakup, particularly regarding Darfur.
• The US special envoy recently met with Sudanese generals in Port Sudan but reported no indication they are prepared to join serious negotiations soon.

International Alignment and Strategic Posturing

• The army maintains momentum due to arms supplies from Iran and backing from Russia, with some generals previously stating they would fight until controlling every corner of the country.
• Analysts suggest factions within the army may be willing to relinquish control of Darfur due to cultural and demographic differences, contrary to their official stance.
• The RSF is attempting to portray itself as the more reliable partner for peace, despite skepticism regarding its good faith due to documented atrocities and bureaucratic obstacles to aid delivery, particularly in al-Fasher.
• International observers remain skeptical of the RSF's commitment to peace, citing unaddressed allegations of sexual violence and continued denial of well-documented atrocities.

Brazil: Accusations Against Jair Bolsonaro

• Former President Jair Bolsonaro was formally accused on November 21 of attempting to prevent the inauguration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, facing a combined maximum prison sentence of 28 years.
• An 884-page police report alleges Bolsonaro engaged in an attempted coup by spreading doubts about voting machines, meeting with army and government officials to advocate for a coup, and organizing the January 8, 2023, storming of government buildings.
• A separate 221-page report details an assassination plot targeting President Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, including an alleged outline printed by General Mario Fernandes.
• Bolsonaro has denied all charges, labeling the investigations as political persecution by the left to prevent his potential 2026 re-election.
• Four members of an elite army unit and a police officer were arrested in connection with the assassination plot, following a failed suicide bombing at Brazil's Supreme Court on November 13.

Brazilian Political Landscape and Future Implications

• The indictments have galvanized the political left, with legal experts predicting Bolsonaro's imprisonment is a matter of "when, not if," while right-wing allies argue his influence persists regardless of incarceration or ineligibility.
• Bolsonaro remains barred from public office for eight years due to a prior ruling regarding the misuse of state media in the 2022 election cycle.
• Despite the legal risks, prominent 2026 right-wing candidates refuse to condemn Bolsonaro, recognizing his status as a crucial vote-gatherer for their coalition.
• Supporters anticipate that US President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk, who have criticized Brazilian Supreme Court Justice de Moraes, might use their platforms to attack Brazilian authorities and support the Bolsonaro faction.

Global Expansion of Chinese Bubble Tea Chains

• Chinese bubble tea chains are rapidly expanding into global markets like London, New York, and Singapore, driven by extreme domestic competition and a need for alternative revenue streams.
• The domestic food and beverage sector in China saw over 3 million new company registrations in 2023, prompting established chains to slash prices, resulting in dwindling profits and a strategic push overseas.
• Chinese government authorities are actively promoting the international expansion of food brands as a means to bolster soft power, offering support with ingredient exports and personnel training.
• These chains are currently targeting the growing population of overseas Chinese, with a global diaspora increase of over three million people in the last seven years.
• Success is strongest in Southeast Asia due to cultural proximity, while expansion into Western markets like the US, Canada, and the UK faces challenges due to a focus on serving Mandarin-speaking demographics rather than local palates.