Interview, Fireside Chat, Podcast
a16z Podcast | Airspace as the Next Internet-Like Platform
- Commercial drone operations are projected to expand rapidly following the anticipated release of permanent FAA rules in late 2015, with over 4,000 Section 333 exemptions already granted in nine months and full commercial viability expected within the next 18 months.
- Economic opportunities are predicted to shift toward nations with flexible regulatory frameworks, while the U.S. faces the challenge of defining "killer apps" as the technology becomes more accessible and new use cases emerge.
- Safety concerns regarding small drones are mitigated by projections indicating negligible human injury risk, estimated at one incident per 187 million years for two-kilogram aircraft, and privacy is expected to be managed through geofencing and automated deletion protocols.
- Regulatory updates include a push to increase the registration threshold from 250 grams to two kilograms, a clarification in the F.A. Reauthorization Act of 2016 preempting state laws that allow shooting down drones, and the expectation that the FAA's next-gen airspace system will facilitate improved machine-to-machine routing.
- Future aviation horizons involve the maturation of drone racing on major networks like ESPN within one to two years, the potential for two-hour cross-country supersonic flights if bans are lifted, and long-term visions of autonomous passenger transport and "cafes in the air" enabled by robotic aircraft.
- As barriers to entry lower and costs drop, the industry anticipates an influx of inexperienced or malicious operators alongside legitimate businesses, necessitating a risk-based regulatory approach similar to that of the Swiss government.