Interview, Podcast
a16z Podcast | Location, Location, Location -- and Mobile
- Devices are expected to proactively predict user needs, such as hunger or music preferences, by accumulating context-building "little recipes" over the next 30 years, potentially leading to a 10x increase in the specificity of predicted actions.
- While Moore's Law is projected to continue delivering chips that double performance with half the power annually, the physical internet stack will not improve at penetrating signals through buildings, with GPS signals failing to physically penetrate walls for at least five years.
- Future systems aim to reduce location precision friction to within six inches and store digital copies of the physical world in the cloud, though indoor calibration remains challenging and major tech companies have largely deprioritized indoor location messaging despite prior hype.
- Apple intends to leverage its ecosystem where 85% of users adopt the latest OS and consistent hardware models to rebrand proactive services, utilizing motion sensors and face-down detection to conserve battery and manage connectivity without full-power signal hunting.
- Emerging technologies will shift user experiences from tedious to magical by automating routines, such as detecting a dog's thirst based on sensor data or processing signals when users enter unvisited home areas, effectively making humans more intelligent by freeing them for higher-level tasks.
- The smartphone has evolved into an internet services platform where operating systems handle services layers, enabling apps to access address books and push notifications without web visits, while driverless cars and barista-less stores are predicted to become reality within five years.
- Mapping and location data will become the "page rank for the real world" with companies collecting ground truth via fleets of vehicles, though distinct strategic intentions are expected between competitors like Google and Apple regarding the use of this environmental data.
- Risks and challenges include the difficulty of acting like developed market applications in emerging economies due to cellular network limitations, the historical friction caused by treating cellular networks like Wi-Fi, and the developer demand for computationally free actions that do not penalize battery life.
- Significant context remains missing in physical indoor environments where people spend approximately 80% of their time, and while governments initially launched GPS satellites 20 years ago, the lack of indoor penetration capability means phones will still not understand building presence based on new GPS signals alone.