Interview, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
a16z Podcast | Mapping the Future of Virtual Reality
- Mainstream VR adoption in 2016 is projected to be driven by business and enterprise users rather than solely gamers, with a target of approximately 1 million device shipments and up to 10 million demo experiences.
- Oculus Rift is scheduled to ship units in March and enter Best Buy stores in April, while HTC Vive units are predicted to ship in April, with both high-end and low-end platforms remaining distinct in features this year despite potential convergence on tracking.
- Mobile VR is expected to serve as a market teaser alongside high-end devices, with Samsung potentially distributing Gear VR headsets to the first 300,000 Galaxy S7 orders, though high-end VR is not anticipated to achieve mass market penetration immediately.
- Key enterprise applications predicted for the next couple of years include VR-based CAD tools, video conferencing with eight participants utilizing facial and eye-tracking for realism, and virtual meeting spaces designed to resolve distributed team collaboration issues.
- Future content and media evolution over the next few years is anticipated to include live streaming of sports and music events, the adoption of volumetric capture, and the availability of prosumer-tier 360-degree cameras, while creators focus on film, gaming, and short-form content in 2016.
- Long-term transformative changes over the next 10 years are expected in haptic feedback and brain illusion technologies, potentially leading to MMOs that simulate entire lived villages and unexpected use cases, alongside a social perception shift viewing VR as connecting rather than antisocial.
- Success metrics for the current year emphasize the number of demos given and converting skeptics, with high-end VR not expected to reach 10 million units in 60 days or become a mass market item for several years, while Microsoft may delay HoloLens consumer release until a killer app is secured.
- Risks and uncertainties include the unconfirmed consumer price of HoloLens potentially reaching $3,000, the debate over AR's ability to be worn all day compared to VR's limited usage windows, and the uncertain timeline for feature convergence between mobile and high-end platforms.