Interview, Fireside Chat
a16z Podcast | Messaging is the Medium
- Smartphone capabilities are expected to eliminate friction in social network usage by granting apps direct, instant access to contacts, cameras, location, and push notifications, removing the need for manual address book uploads or external logins beyond initial installation.
- A second wave of social behavior is predicted to emerge via ecosystem platforms like WeChat or behavior-specific apps like Instagram and Snapchat, with Facebook driving this trend through acquisitions to co-opt emerging user behaviors despite not originating them.
- Platforms discovering novel user behaviors are expected to experience rapid growth reaching 10 to 100 million users quickly, accompanied by a significant risk of high rates of rapid user departure.
- Monetization models are projected to shift from selling user attention to advertisers toward building platforms that facilitate app installs, traffic, and e-commerce transactions, which are anticipated to generate greater value.
- Messaging applications will support "little apps" for transactions and services within chat interfaces, allowing users to complete actions and payments via built-in wallets without installing separate applications or leaving the app.
- Facebook is expected to execute strategies enabling websites to send direct messages to Messenger users without native apps, allow any mobile app to share content directly into a Messenger feed with a "download" button, and act as a gatekeeper by deciding whether to feature third-party content to 600 million users.
- Competitive dynamics will see Facebook attempting to make Messenger compete against the entire app store by aggregating developer content, while forcing independent networks to flow content directly into Facebook to prevent the formation of standalone competitors.
- Notifications are forecast to evolve into a new "runtime" on mobile devices functioning as atomic units of content for interactive actions and image payloads, a model reinforced by "one-button" or "two-button" interactions on smartwatches and a transformation of notification panels into algorithmically sorted primary interaction points.
- Google is expected to enable websites to send personalized notifications to a dedicated panel, viewing Chrome tabs as OS citizens, while Facebook leverages its identity platform to allow PC-logged-in websites to notify phone users about real-world events.
- Identity models are anticipated to diverge, with Apple relying on Touch ID and Apple Pay which may evolve into a broader identity platform inside apps, yet remaining ambivalent about broad cross-platform login services, whereas Google may release radical identity changes in the next four years.
- Apple is expected to permit Facebook's new messaging capabilities and potential custom notification panels on Android despite conflicts with iTunes terms of service, driven by the features' ability to improve engagement and user experience.
- Facebook aims to break the "one blue icon" constraint by aggregating user behaviors across Messenger and Instagram to become the primary channel of interaction, employing a "Trojan horse" strategy on Android to aggregate phone activity into a Facebook-controlled interface.
- Developers face a strategic choice between Apple's ecosystem or Facebook's, where Facebook offers access to 600 million users in exchange for surrendering direct ownership of that user base, though Facebook's tendency to shut down developer platforms is expected to change under a non-filtered, user-to-user Messenger model.
- Facebook is expected to lack the current platform architecture to host specific content types such as live video, disappearing messages, or deep embedded apps, meaning future social networks may emerge using entirely new interaction models.
- Attempts to solve the app installation problem could undermine Facebook's app install advertising revenue if viral growth makes paid ads unnecessary, while the industry need for common messaging standards may be a misunderstanding given that existing notification panels already aggregate messages.
- The mobile software landscape is predicted to remain in flux for at least four years with radical changes to identity and notification roadmaps from Apple and Google, who may independently rebuild systems leading to accusations of copying despite separate timelines.
- In five years, Google's mobile strategy may center on a "Chrome phone" running exclusively web apps mirroring the 2007 iPhone model, while Apple continues to expand its ecosystem through extensions and APIs.