Interview
a16z Podcast | Mobile Falls Hard for Virtual Reality
- Smartphone sales are projected to experience significant growth starting in 2010, with over half of the developed world's population expected to own and use them.
- European operators face a prediction of flat revenue performance persisting for more than a decade.
- Samsung is identified as the primary executor of the mobile data vision, distinguishing it from Nokia and Microsoft.
- Apple is anticipated to remain a fast follower in the virtual reality (VR) sector, delaying entry until a market-defining product is ready.
- VR is confirmed as a future component of the industry, with mass-market adoption expected within two to five years to become standard in mid to high-end smartphones.
- A dedicated games console product is expected to coexist alongside smartphone-based VR solutions.
- The viability of the online flash sale model remains uncertain outside of China.
- Global PC sales are projected to decline from fewer than 300 million units to a range of 200 to 250 million, while the global install base is forecast to drop from 1.5 billion to between 1 billion and 1.25 billion.
- In contrast to the PC market, mobile phone adoption is expected to reach 4 to 5 billion users, with annual iOS and Android device sales exceeding 2 billion units.
- Annual unit sales for iOS and Android devices are projected to be ten times higher than PC sales, resulting in a smartphone install base five times larger than that of PCs.
- Assembly operations may shift outside of China as products become increasingly commoditized, while Shenzhen is expected to move up the value chain.
- Future discovery, acquisition, and engagement stacks are expected to shift upward, potentially driven by AR, VR, or AI technologies.