Interview
a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
- James Currier anticipates network effects will persist as a critical competitive moat, with evolving definitions and analytical frameworks used to determine growth playbooks and business defensibility.
- Messaging is expected to remain a longer-term network effect vehicle than specific platforms like Facebook, which face potential obsolescence within a decade, while Facebook Messenger is predicted to leverage payments and utilities to strengthen personal direct network effects.
- Marketplaces such as Airbnb face initial growth challenges requiring three years to establish sufficient liquidity and trust, with new entrants facing stiff competition if they lack these foundational elements despite the possibility of late-stage market entry.
- Platform viability depends on two-sided network effects, specifically developer activity, while the bandwagon effect creates social barriers to switching, and distinct hooks and viral paths are required for growth separate from retention.
- Social networks without real names and real utility are predicted to fail rapidly, as illustrated by MySpace, whereas Path's decline was driven by Facebook mobile and WhatsApp's competitive arrival.
- Network effects do not strictly require viral growth, though virality can drive customer acquisition costs to near zero.
- Jenny Lee projects that emojis proposed in January 2016 will be included in Unicode 10, announced in June 2017, with actual deployment on phones occurring several months post-announcement.
- The Unicode Consortium is anticipated to maintain an annual addition of 60 emojis despite acknowledging this pace is unsustainable and shifting toward inline images as the future standard.
- Large technology companies like Facebook and Twitter are expected to develop proprietary emoji sets to secure distinct branding, avoid legal liability associated with Apple's set, and manage specific design debates such as gender representation.
- Current rendering inconsistencies, such as Microsoft displaying two-letter codes for country flags rather than the flag image itself, highlight ongoing technical limitations in emoji standardization.
- Fred Benenson reports that Emoji Dick, published around 2009 and developed over eight to nine months, has sold approximately 500 to 600 copies since its self-publication.
- The Library of Congress is noted to have contacted Benenson in 2013 to acquire Emoji Dick as their first emoji book.
- A first-ever Emojicon event is planned for November in San Francisco, featuring panels, talks, a film festival, an emoji hackathon, and a no-emoji art show.
- The Emojicon opening party is planned to exclusively serve food items represented as emojis.
- The goal of Emojicon is to facilitate broader discussions on emoji policy beyond the Unicode Consortium level, involving subcommittee members and co-chairs in the dialogue.