Interview, Fireside Chat
a16z Podcast | Pulse Check on Consumer Tech Trends 2019, CES and Beyond
- Flexible OLED screens are expected to become ubiquitous within five years, enabling arbitrary shapes and sizes to wrap around products like vehicles and appliances, while LCD manufacturers will eventually produce custom rectilinear screens economically by amortizing existing factory investments.
- In two to three years, consumers are predicted to purchase small, approximately 12-inch square devices that unroll high-quality screens into five-foot televisions in five seconds, with the hardware continuing to shrink over time.
- Screen manufacturing is anticipated to undergo a step-change to move away from cutting fixed-size glass panels to creating custom shapes, a transition requiring time for factories to adapt.
- Streaming content fragmentation is predicted to accelerate as major studios launch direct-to-consumer apps, potentially resulting in users needing up to 45 separate applications on a single device.
- The current state of streaming aggregation is viewed as unstable due to a lack of incentives for major players to integrate competing platforms, and TV manufacturers are expected to fail at becoming central operating systems for content.
- Apple's provision of services on third-party hardware is characterized as a temporary extension of its product "halo" rather than a fundamental strategic shift to a standalone business model.
- The "electric carving knife" phase of smart home technology will fade as experimental connected devices like smart toilets or voice-controlled bed frames fail to gain lasting traction.
- Smart home connectivity will evolve from a complex discovery phase with manual scripting to a seamless experience driven by machine learning where devices automatically learn user preferences and act without user intervention.
- Voice assistant platforms like Alexa and Google Assistant are expected to diverge in capabilities and hardware constraints, ending the current era of easy, free integration via simple code.
- Smart home integrations are predicted to fade from major trade show attention as novelty wears away and many experimental gadgets disappear, with only specific high-value items like smart locks and auto-shutoff ovens becoming standard.
- The smart lock market will remain dominated by traditional hardware manufacturers with established supply chains rather than software startups.
- Strategic benefits for Amazon and Google will shift from deploying voice assistants in millions of homes to determining how these endpoints are utilized for commerce and delivery services.
- Current excitement around voice control may prove to be a "parlor trick" where specific device control is not actually functional, leading to user frustration.
- Small companies driving grassroots innovation will continue to be the most dynamic aspect of the industry, pushing new products and business ideas despite some appearing trivial on the surface.
- Supply chain innovations regarding components like batteries and custom packaging will continue to originate in the "component hall" rather than consumer-facing booths.
- Aggregation of smart home connectivity is expected to shift to the chip vendor level, making integration with voice assistants a selectable option on the chip rather than a hardware constraint.
- A future standard is anticipated where most homes possess only a few connected devices, such as smart locks or cameras, rather than fully scripted, automated houses.
- The market for connected appliances will continue to filter out devices that do not solve real consumer problems, leaving only a fraction of the current flood of gadgets as permanent fixtures.
- Uncertainty remains regarding whether the future of connectivity will be seamless via machine learning or if the current experimentation will leave many devices obsolete.