Interview
a16z Podcast | Searching for Mobile’s Own PageRank
- Apple and Google are expected to shift interaction models toward non-native code experiences like XML cards as rumors of wearables and health features emerge.
- Deep linking and URL-based discovery may be replaced by local data systems and automatic APIs within a five to ten-year timeframe.
- Future mobile platforms might invert current control structures by treating large centralized web services as caches for local data that update upon login.
- Apple's hardware and software integration via Bluetooth and fingerprint scanners is likely to remain difficult for Google to replicate due to limited device visibility.
- Google may drive innovation through the cloud via Google Play Services and Google Now, potentially positioning Chrome OS as the ultimate iteration of this approach.
- In five years, the concept of installing an app on Android may become ambiguous, potentially involving only the enabling of services rather than downloading code.
- The definition of installing an app on iPhone may shift to no longer strictly entail downloading a package of Objective-C code.
- A fusion of Chrome OS and Android is considered plausible under current leadership, potentially involving rewriting Android Java APIs into JavaScript APIs.
- Google Java APIs may eventually be rewritten as JavaScript APIs to create a migration path, despite previous legal stances on their Java nature.
- Developers building mobile platforms today would likely favor JavaScript over Java due to performance gains from technologies like Trace Tars and the V8 compiler.
- While a technical performance gap between web and native apps will likely persist, it will matter less over time as more resources are allocated to bridging it.
- Specific programming languages or network technologies may become less significant than defining interaction models, such as how icons appear on home screens or watches.
- Focus on app distribution models and deep linking will likely fade as interaction contexts become the primary challenge for developers.
- Google may attempt to "kill the native app," but Apple is considered a more likely candidate to eliminate native apps to strengthen its platform for developers.
- A significant portion of future mobile fusion will be sessile, involving users wearing devices like Oculus connected to powerful local computers.
- The industry may see a return of laptops, server farms, and desktops as integral components of the future mobile fusion landscape.